{"ok":true,"dials":{"at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","dials":[{"id":"chart.trend","desk":"chartdesk","name":"how much the trend votes count in a chart read","feature":"trend","base":1,"lo":0.5,"hi":1.5,"gated":false,"value":0.5,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"retired","samples":83,"why":"the review retired trend from the chart desk's blend as noise, so the dial sits at its floor","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"chart.structure","desk":"chartdesk","name":"how much the swing structure counts in a chart read","feature":"structure","base":1,"lo":0.5,"hi":1.5,"gated":false,"value":0.5,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"retired","samples":83,"why":"the review retired structure from the chart desk's blend as noise, so the dial sits at its floor","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"chart.strength","desk":"chartdesk","name":"how much the strength reading counts in a chart read","feature":"strength","base":1,"lo":0.5,"hi":1.5,"gated":false,"value":0.5,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"retired","samples":83,"why":"the review retired strength from the chart desk's blend as noise, so the dial sits at its floor","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"chart.divergence","desk":"chartdesk","name":"how much a divergence at the swings counts in a chart read","feature":"divergence","base":1,"lo":0.5,"hi":1.5,"gated":false,"value":0.5,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"retired","samples":83,"why":"the review retired divergence from the chart desk's blend as noise, so the dial sits at its floor","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"chart.vwap","desk":"chartdesk","name":"how much the average price paid since the low counts in a chart read","feature":"vwap","base":1,"lo":0.5,"hi":1.5,"gated":false,"value":1,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"base","samples":83,"why":"its readings cannot be split into two groups of 8; the most even cut leaves 7 on one side","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"chart.band","desk":"chartdesk","name":"how much price leaning on a band counts in a chart read","feature":"band","base":1,"lo":0.5,"hi":1.5,"gated":false,"value":0.5,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"retired","samples":83,"why":"the review retired band from the chart desk's blend as noise, so the dial sits at its floor","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"bond.overtone","desk":"bondmarket","name":"how far the virality read tilts a bond market's fair price","feature":"overtone","base":0.34,"lo":0.1,"hi":0.5,"gated":false,"value":0.1,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"retired","samples":400,"why":"the review retired overtone from the bond market's blend as noise, so the dial sits at its floor","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":{"measurable":false,"worse":false,"nFrom":1,"nTo":2,"why":"2 settled under the moved value and 1 under the one before; 30 each are needed before the move can be judged"},"reverted":null},{"id":"bond.position","desk":"bondmarket","name":"how far a coin's place inside its band tilts a bond market's fair price","feature":"progress","base":0.24,"lo":0.08,"hi":0.36,"gated":false,"value":0.08,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"retired","samples":400,"why":"the review retired progress from the bond market's blend as noise, so the dial sits at its floor","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":{"measurable":false,"worse":false,"nFrom":0,"nTo":1,"why":"1 settled under the moved value and 0 under the one before; 30 each are needed before the move can be judged"},"reverted":null},{"id":"earnings.analyst","desk":"earnings","name":"how far the analyst pulls the earnings desk's number off its base-rate model","feature":"analyst","base":0.5,"lo":0.1,"hi":1,"gated":false,"value":0.1,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"retired","samples":262,"why":"the review retired analyst from the earnings desk's blend as noise, so the dial sits at its floor","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"predict.model","desk":"predict-read","name":"how much the price model counts in a prediction read","feature":"modelGap","base":0.45,"lo":0.2,"hi":0.7,"gated":false,"value":0.3258,"weight":0.724,"learned":true,"mode":"real","samples":1500,"why":"right 28% of the time when it reads above 691 against 55% when it reads at or below; real on 263 consecutive refreshes","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":{"measurable":false,"worse":false,"nFrom":0,"nTo":0,"why":"0 settled under the moved value and 0 under the one before; 30 each are needed before the move can be judged"},"reverted":null},{"id":"predict.cross","desk":"predict-read","name":"how much the other venue's price counts in a prediction read","feature":"crossGap","base":0.25,"lo":0.1,"hi":0.4,"gated":false,"value":0.25,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"base","samples":1500,"why":"0 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"predict.analyst","desk":"predict-read","name":"how much the analyst counts in a prediction read","feature":"analyst","base":0.3,"lo":0.1,"hi":0.5,"gated":false,"value":0.1,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"retired","samples":1500,"why":"the review retired analyst from the prediction desk's blend as noise, so the dial sits at its floor","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":{"measurable":false,"worse":false,"nFrom":1502,"nTo":0,"why":"0 settled under the moved value and 1502 under the one before; 30 each are needed before the move can be judged"},"reverted":null},{"id":"predict.crowd","desk":"predict-read","name":"how much the crowd's lean counts in a prediction read, and nothing at all until the record vouches for it","feature":"crowdLean","base":0.15,"lo":0,"hi":0.3,"gated":true,"value":0,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"retired","samples":1500,"why":"the review retired crowdLean from the prediction desk's blend as noise, so the dial sits at its floor","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"trade.viral","desk":"trader","name":"how far the timeline's talk about a coin moves its rank on the trading desk","feature":"viralHeard","base":12,"lo":4,"hi":18,"gated":false,"value":12,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"base","samples":28,"why":"28 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet. 5 older calls are kept but not counted, because they were recorded in a different encoding","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"risk.depth","desk":"risk","name":"how much a market's depth counts in the risk score","feature":"depth","base":22,"lo":11,"hi":33,"gated":false,"value":22,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"base","samples":21,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"risk.volatility","desk":"risk","name":"how much a market's realized volatility counts in the risk score","feature":"volatility","base":20,"lo":10,"hi":30,"gated":false,"value":20,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"base","samples":21,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"risk.concentration","desk":"risk","name":"how much holder concentration counts in the risk score","feature":"concentration","base":15,"lo":7.5,"hi":22.5,"gated":false,"value":15,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"base","samples":21,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"risk.slippage","desk":"risk","name":"how much the slippage a clip would eat counts in the risk score","feature":"slippage","base":13,"lo":6.5,"hi":19.5,"gated":false,"value":13,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"base","samples":21,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"risk.age","desk":"risk","name":"how much a market's age counts in the risk score","feature":"age","base":12,"lo":6,"hi":18,"gated":false,"value":12,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"base","samples":21,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"risk.consistency","desk":"risk","name":"how much of the tape the desk has watched counts in the risk score","feature":"consistency","base":10,"lo":5,"hi":15,"gated":false,"value":10,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"base","samples":21,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"risk.contract","desk":"risk","name":"how much the token contract's own safety counts in the risk score","feature":"contract","base":8,"lo":4,"hi":12,"gated":false,"value":8,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"base","samples":21,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"perps.registry","desk":"perps","name":"how much the registry's rank counts in a perp read, and nothing at all until the record vouches for it","feature":"registry","base":1,"lo":0.5,"hi":1.5,"gated":true,"value":1,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"base","samples":402,"why":"0 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"perps.chart","desk":"perps","name":"how much the chart read's vote counts in a perp read","feature":"chart","base":1,"lo":0.5,"hi":1.5,"gated":false,"value":0.5,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"retired","samples":402,"why":"the review retired chart from the perp read's blend as noise, so the dial sits at its floor","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"perps.stance","desk":"perps","name":"how much the chart's stance agreeing with the call counts in a perp read, and nothing at all until the record vouches for it","feature":"stance","base":1,"lo":0.5,"hi":1.5,"gated":true,"value":0.5,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"retired","samples":402,"why":"the review retired stance from the perp read's blend as noise, so the dial sits at its floor","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null},{"id":"dca.dislocation","desk":"dca","name":"how far a dislocation moves a tranche","feature":"dislocation","base":0.1,"lo":0.05,"hi":0.15,"gated":false,"value":0.1,"weight":1,"learned":false,"mode":"base","samples":0,"why":"0 settled calls in the current encoding; nothing is weighted under 12, and a feature earns weight only once 30 cases carry it with at least 8 either side of the cut.","at":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.922Z","regime":null,"reverted":null}],"moves":[{"at":"2026-11-11T06:49:33.474Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3258,"from":0.3249,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3249 to 0.3258, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 28% of the time when it reads above 691 against 55% when it reads at or below; real on 263 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-11T06:19:58.817Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3249,"from":0.3253,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3253 to 0.3249, because across 1501 settled reads that reading right 28% of the time when it reads above 691 against 56% when it reads at or below; real on 263 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-11T05:41:45.677Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3253,"from":0.3384,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3384 to 0.3253, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 28% of the time when it reads above 691 against 56% when it reads at or below; real on 263 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-11T04:41:45.662Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3384,"from":0.3375,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3375 to 0.3384, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 29% of the time when it reads above 675 against 54% when it reads at or below; real on 262 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-11T04:11:45.577Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3375,"from":0.3388,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3388 to 0.3375, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 29% of the time when it reads above 680 against 54% when it reads at or below; real on 262 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-11T02:13:22.609Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3388,"from":0.338,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.338 to 0.3388, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 30% of the time when it reads above 675 against 54% when it reads at or below; real on 262 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-11T00:13:21.540Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.338,"from":0.3393,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3393 to 0.338, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 30% of the time when it reads above 675 against 55% when it reads at or below; real on 262 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-10T22:34:59.406Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3393,"from":0.3375,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3375 to 0.3393, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 30% of the time when it reads above 675 against 55% when it reads at or below; real on 261 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-10T21:29:16.109Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3375,"from":0.3384,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3384 to 0.3375, because across 1520 settled reads that reading right 29% of the time when it reads above 674 against 54% when it reads at or below; real on 260 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-10T20:59:16.109Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3384,"from":0.3339,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3339 to 0.3384, because across 1508 settled reads that reading right 29% of the time when it reads above 674 against 54% when it reads at or below; real on 259 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-10T15:11:34.966Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3339,"from":0.3375,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3375 to 0.3339, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 29% of the time when it reads above 670 against 55% when it reads at or below; real on 258 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-10T04:37:31.660Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3375,"from":0.3416,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3416 to 0.3375, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 29% of the time when it reads above 654 against 54% when it reads at or below; real on 257 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-10T01:25:09.075Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3416,"from":0.347,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.347 to 0.3416, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 30% of the time when it reads above 651 against 54% when it reads at or below; real on 257 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-10T00:55:09.012Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.347,"from":0.3515,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3515 to 0.347, because across 1508 settled reads that reading right 31% of the time when it reads above 609 against 54% when it reads at or below; real on 257 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-09T23:25:08.999Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3515,"from":0.3497,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3497 to 0.3515, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 31% of the time when it reads above 597 against 53% when it reads at or below; real on 255 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-09T22:25:08.997Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3497,"from":0.3533,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3533 to 0.3497, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 31% of the time when it reads above 597 against 53% when it reads at or below; real on 254 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-09T21:55:08.997Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3533,"from":0.3573,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3573 to 0.3533, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 31% of the time when it reads above 582 against 52% when it reads at or below; real on 253 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-09T21:25:08.996Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3573,"from":0.356,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.356 to 0.3573, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 31% of the time when it reads above 580 against 52% when it reads at or below; real on 252 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-09T19:55:08.988Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.356,"from":0.3569,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3569 to 0.356, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 31% of the time when it reads above 580 against 52% when it reads at or below; real on 250 consecutive refreshes"},{"at":"2026-11-09T19:25:08.988Z","id":"predict.model","to":0.3569,"from":0.3564,"text":"the prediction desk moved how much the price model counts in a prediction read from 0.3564 to 0.3569, because across 1500 settled reads that reading right 31% of the time when it reads above 580 against 51% when it reads at or below; real on 249 consecutive refreshes"}],"how":"each dial is a constant in a desk's rule, declared with the feature that governs it and the bounds it may never leave; the desk writes its expectation before the outcome, with the dials in force written on it; the world settles it; the dial moves only when the record says the feature separates the winners from the losers on two refreshes with new evidence, sits at its floor when the review retires the reading, and a move is undone when the rows filed under it came out worse"},"recall":{"record":{"total":2871,"answered":2726,"unanswered":145,"bySurface":{"x":2692,"site":123,"telegram":50,"cli":6},"byDay":{"2026-11-04":16,"2026-11-05":111,"2026-11-06":74,"2026-11-07":49,"2026-11-08":24,"2026-11-09":36,"2026-11-10":25,"2026-11-11":31},"bytes":1896964,"oldest":"2026-09-23T21:11:54.000Z","newest":"2026-11-11T16:06:34.104Z","file":"recall.jsonl","table":"harmonic_recall"},"lastAt":"2026-11-11T02:54:00.724Z","days":7,"thin":false,"error":"the reflection did not come back as the JSON asked for","asked":[],"unanswered":[],"wants":[],"voice":0,"improvements":[],"regulars":0},"floors":{"minSamples":12,"minSpread":30,"minBand":8},"encoding":2,"desks":{"earn":{"desk":"earn","lifetime":{"right":1,"wrong":0,"lastAt":"2026-10-21T00:32:22.781Z","claimed":3,"firstAt":"2026-10-21T00:32:22.781Z","settled":1,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":1,"settled":1}}},"calls":3,"open":2,"settled":1,"right":1,"wrong":0,"hitRate":1,"avgMoveBps":95,"learning":{"weights":{"othersUsd":1,"oracleBasisPct":1,"utilizationPct":1},"signs":{"othersUsd":1,"oracleBasisPct":1,"utilizationPct":1},"learning":false,"samples":1,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"note":"1 settled call in the current encoding; nothing is weighted under 12, and a feature earns weight only once 30 cases carry it with at least 8 either side of the cut.","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"0x9b4b47cdf7e295341c6c6cdfd3efb9805c4a5b3d580dba0c0c39d3a4232b297b","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":95,"at":"2026-10-12T16:44:08.348Z","settledAt":"2026-10-21T00:32:22.781Z"}]},"hinc":{"desk":"hinc","lifetime":{"right":15,"wrong":27,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T16:18:51.191Z","claimed":42,"firstAt":"2026-09-22T15:04:15.490Z","settled":42,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":15,"settled":42}}},"calls":42,"open":0,"settled":42,"right":15,"wrong":27,"hitRate":0.357,"avgMoveBps":-2830,"learning":{"weights":{"moveUsd":1,"slipBps":0.5,"driftBps":1},"signs":{"moveUsd":1,"slipBps":-1,"driftBps":1},"detail":{"moveUsd":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":42,"pinned":0,"distinct":35,"cut":1.06,"lowN":21,"highN":21,"hiRate":0.333,"loRate":0.381,"gap":-0.048,"noise":0.444,"why":"the gap of 5 points does not clear the 44 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"slipBps":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":42,"pinned":0.786,"distinct":38,"cut":187,"lowN":21,"highN":21,"hiRate":0,"loRate":0.714,"gap":-0.714,"noise":0.444,"why":"right 0% of the time when it reads above 187 against 71% when it reads at or below"},"driftBps":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":42,"pinned":1,"distinct":36,"cut":526,"lowN":20,"highN":22,"hiRate":0.227,"loRate":0.5,"gap":-0.273,"noise":0.444,"why":"the gap of 27 points does not clear the 44 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":42,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":1,"constants":0,"note":"weighted by 42 settled calls; 1 of 3 features tell the winners from the losers by more than luck would, and none carries more than 1.5.","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"MU->SGOV","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-3799,"at":"2026-11-11T15:48:41.766Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T16:18:51.191Z"},{"subject":"MU->NVDA","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":-250,"at":"2026-11-11T07:19:48.969Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T07:50:07.157Z"},{"subject":"COST->NVDA","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1092,"at":"2026-11-11T01:13:56.302Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T01:43:30.280Z"},{"subject":"SGOV->NVDA","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":-328,"at":"2026-11-09T13:55:24.582Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T14:25:10.466Z"},{"subject":"JNJ->MU","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1209,"at":"2026-11-05T15:50:14.156Z","settledAt":"2026-11-05T16:20:10.897Z"},{"subject":"COST->MU","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-2500,"at":"2026-11-04T23:06:04.461Z","settledAt":"2026-11-04T23:35:43.205Z"},{"subject":"GOOGL->MU","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1064,"at":"2026-11-04T15:35:46.235Z","settledAt":"2026-11-04T16:05:32.008Z"},{"subject":"AAPL->DELL","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-946,"at":"2026-11-04T15:05:44.713Z","settledAt":"2026-11-04T15:35:32.627Z"}]},"lean":{"desk":"lean","lifetime":{"right":111,"wrong":43,"lastAt":"2026-10-31T22:56:34.323Z","claimed":154,"firstAt":"2026-10-03T22:31:40.923Z","settled":154,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":111,"settled":154}}},"calls":154,"open":0,"settled":154,"right":111,"wrong":43,"hitRate":0.721,"avgMoveBps":null,"learning":{"weights":{"source":1,"attempt":1,"hasLean":1,"claimLen":1},"signs":{"source":1,"attempt":1,"hasLean":1,"claimLen":1},"detail":{"source":{"measurable":false,"constant":true,"n":154,"pinned":1,"distinct":1,"why":"it read the same value in all 154 cases, pinned at the clamp, so it is a constant rather than a feature"},"attempt":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":154,"pinned":0.195,"distinct":2,"cut":-100,"lowN":30,"highN":124,"hiRate":0.766,"loRate":0.533,"gap":0.233,"noise":0.274,"why":"the gap of 23 points does not clear the 27 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"hasLean":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":154,"pinned":1,"distinct":2,"cut":-100,"lowN":142,"highN":12,"hiRate":0.583,"loRate":0.732,"gap":-0.149,"noise":0.405,"why":"the gap of 15 points does not clear the 40 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"claimLen":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":154,"pinned":0,"distinct":48,"cut":-14,"lowN":74,"highN":80,"hiRate":0.787,"loRate":0.649,"gap":0.139,"noise":0.217,"why":"the gap of 14 points does not clear the 22 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":154,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":1,"note":"154 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":["attempt","claimLen","hasLean"]},"recent":[{"subject":"organon-a-listing-pays-out-exactly-its-price","direction":"proves","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-31T22:51:33.087Z","settledAt":"2026-10-31T22:56:34.323Z"},{"subject":"organon-a-listing-pays-out-exactly-its-price","direction":"proves","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-30T22:47:57.123Z","settledAt":"2026-10-30T22:52:57.427Z"},{"subject":"poiesis-funded-spreads-conserve-collateral-and-premium","direction":"proves","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-29T22:28:04.976Z","settledAt":"2026-10-29T22:31:43.077Z"},{"subject":"poiesis-funded-spreads-conserve-collateral-and-premium","direction":"proves","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-28T22:25:37.980Z","settledAt":"2026-10-28T22:30:50.325Z"},{"subject":"oracle-a-question-never-opens-or-takes-a-stake-on-a-print-already-standing","direction":"proves","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-27T22:07:14.879Z","settledAt":"2026-10-27T22:12:17.015Z"},{"subject":"bond-spread-widens-only-on-a-proven-edge-and-never-past-double","direction":"proves","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-27T21:37:14.709Z","settledAt":"2026-10-27T21:42:16.887Z"},{"subject":"bond-spread-widens-only-on-a-proven-edge-and-never-past-double","direction":"proves","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-27T21:07:14.940Z","settledAt":"2026-10-27T21:12:16.890Z"},{"subject":"agentvault-a-dca-slice-is-signed-only-through-its-vault","direction":"proves","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-27T20:37:14.788Z","settledAt":"2026-10-27T20:42:17.432Z"}]},"risk":{"desk":"risk","lifetime":{"right":15,"wrong":6,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T10:09:44.884Z","claimed":24,"firstAt":"2026-10-10T21:01:50.541Z","settled":21,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":15,"settled":21}}},"calls":24,"open":3,"settled":21,"right":15,"wrong":6,"hitRate":0.714,"avgMoveBps":-269,"learning":{"weights":{"age":1,"depth":1,"contract":1,"slippage":1,"volatility":1,"consistency":1,"concentration":1},"signs":{"age":1,"depth":1,"contract":1,"slippage":1,"volatility":1,"consistency":1,"concentration":1},"detail":{"age":{"measurable":false,"n":21,"pinned":0,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"depth":{"measurable":false,"n":21,"pinned":0,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"contract":{"measurable":false,"n":21,"pinned":0.048,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"slippage":{"measurable":false,"n":21,"pinned":0,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"volatility":{"measurable":false,"n":21,"pinned":0.857,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"consistency":{"measurable":false,"n":21,"pinned":1,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"concentration":{"measurable":false,"n":21,"pinned":0,"why":"21 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"}},"learning":true,"samples":21,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"21 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"SPCX","direction":"safe","right":true,"moveBps":737,"at":"2026-11-04T10:08:22.272Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T10:09:44.884Z"},{"subject":"TSLA","direction":"safe","right":false,"moveBps":-1038,"at":"2026-11-01T17:51:08.925Z","settledAt":"2026-11-08T18:12:59.067Z"},{"subject":"NVDA","direction":"safe","right":true,"moveBps":-848,"at":"2026-11-01T17:51:08.925Z","settledAt":"2026-11-08T18:12:59.067Z"},{"subject":"META","direction":"safe","right":true,"moveBps":-52,"at":"2026-11-01T17:51:08.925Z","settledAt":"2026-11-08T18:12:59.067Z"},{"subject":"ETH","direction":"safe","right":false,"moveBps":-199,"at":"2026-10-28T10:43:13.306Z","settledAt":"2026-11-04T11:05:30.429Z"},{"subject":"SPCX","direction":"safe","right":false,"moveBps":-1102,"at":"2026-10-28T04:43:07.709Z","settledAt":"2026-11-04T05:07:11.004Z"},{"subject":"NVDA","direction":"safe","right":true,"moveBps":-356,"at":"2026-10-25T12:07:03.722Z","settledAt":"2026-11-01T12:18:45.200Z"},{"subject":"TSLA","direction":"safe","right":true,"moveBps":780,"at":"2026-10-25T12:06:34.601Z","settledAt":"2026-11-01T12:18:45.200Z"}]},"tail":{"desk":"tail","lifetime":{"right":191,"wrong":31,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T13:06:03.927Z","claimed":228,"firstAt":"2026-10-04T19:07:07.787Z","settled":222,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":191,"settled":222}}},"calls":228,"open":6,"settled":222,"right":191,"wrong":31,"hitRate":0.86,"avgMoveBps":-8299,"learning":{"weights":{"vol":1,"varPct":1,"horizon":1},"signs":{"vol":1,"varPct":1,"horizon":1},"detail":{"vol":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":222,"pinned":0,"distinct":65,"cut":1,"lowN":110,"highN":112,"hiRate":0.866,"loRate":0.855,"gap":0.012,"noise":0.14,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 14 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"varPct":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":222,"pinned":0,"distinct":44,"cut":9,"lowN":112,"highN":110,"hiRate":0.864,"loRate":0.857,"gap":0.006,"noise":0.14,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 14 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"horizon":{"measurable":false,"constant":true,"n":222,"pinned":0,"distinct":1,"why":"it read the same value in all 222 cases, so it is a constant rather than a feature"}},"learning":true,"samples":222,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":1,"note":"222 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":["varPct","vol"]},"recent":[{"subject":"XAU","direction":"covers","right":true,"moveBps":-5472,"at":"2026-11-10T12:11:34.227Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T13:06:03.927Z"},{"subject":"NVDA","direction":"covers","right":true,"moveBps":-6919,"at":"2026-11-10T12:11:34.227Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T13:06:03.927Z"},{"subject":"QQQ","direction":"covers","right":true,"moveBps":-16782,"at":"2026-11-10T12:11:34.227Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T13:06:03.927Z"},{"subject":"SPY","direction":"covers","right":true,"moveBps":-13274,"at":"2026-11-10T12:11:34.227Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T13:06:03.927Z"},{"subject":"BTC","direction":"covers","right":true,"moveBps":-7652,"at":"2026-11-10T12:11:34.227Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T13:06:03.927Z"},{"subject":"ETH","direction":"covers","right":true,"moveBps":-3823,"at":"2026-11-10T12:11:34.227Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T13:06:03.927Z"},{"subject":"XAU","direction":"covers","right":true,"moveBps":-5113,"at":"2026-11-09T11:55:08.491Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T12:11:34.227Z"},{"subject":"NVDA","direction":"covers","right":true,"moveBps":-11656,"at":"2026-11-09T11:55:08.491Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T12:11:34.227Z"}]},"index":{"desk":"index","lifetime":{"right":26,"wrong":26,"lastAt":"2026-11-10T17:11:37.196Z","claimed":52,"firstAt":"2026-09-14T14:14:32.692Z","settled":52,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":26,"settled":52}}},"calls":52,"open":0,"settled":52,"right":26,"wrong":26,"hitRate":0.5,"avgMoveBps":-3284,"learning":{"weights":{"moveUsd":1,"slipBps":0.5,"driftBps":1},"signs":{"moveUsd":1,"slipBps":-1,"driftBps":1},"detail":{"moveUsd":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":52,"pinned":0,"distinct":43,"cut":5.17,"lowN":26,"highN":26,"hiRate":0.615,"loRate":0.385,"gap":0.231,"noise":0.416,"why":"the gap of 23 points does not clear the 42 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"slipBps":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":52,"pinned":0.673,"distinct":48,"cut":142,"lowN":26,"highN":26,"hiRate":0,"loRate":1,"gap":-1,"noise":0.416,"why":"right 0% of the time when it reads above 142 against 100% when it reads at or below"},"driftBps":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":52,"pinned":1,"distinct":38,"cut":537,"lowN":26,"highN":26,"hiRate":0.538,"loRate":0.462,"gap":0.077,"noise":0.416,"why":"the gap of 8 points does not clear the 42 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":52,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":1,"constants":0,"note":"weighted by 52 settled calls; 1 of 3 features tell the winners from the losers by more than luck would, and none carries more than 1.5.","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"SPY->MSTR","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":-1825,"at":"2026-11-10T16:41:49.317Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T17:11:37.196Z"},{"subject":"META->CRCL","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":-1670,"at":"2026-11-10T15:41:53.050Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T16:11:56.474Z"},{"subject":"TSLA->NVDA","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":-4507,"at":"2026-11-09T16:25:23.525Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T16:55:35.873Z"},{"subject":"TSLA->MSTR","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":-2632,"at":"2026-11-09T05:13:24.935Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T05:53:37.209Z"},{"subject":"GLD->NVDA","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1946,"at":"2026-11-09T01:43:39.947Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T02:13:01.028Z"},{"subject":"META->COIN","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":-2147,"at":"2026-11-06T15:59:21.184Z","settledAt":"2026-11-06T16:29:15.939Z"},{"subject":"GLD->CRCL","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-3520,"at":"2026-11-05T15:20:09.765Z","settledAt":"2026-11-05T15:49:44.484Z"},{"subject":"AAPL->TSLA","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":-265,"at":"2026-11-05T14:50:05.865Z","settledAt":"2026-11-05T15:20:08.643Z"}]},"pairs":{"desk":"pairs","lifetime":{"right":46,"wrong":35,"lastAt":"2026-11-10T15:11:34.224Z","claimed":85,"firstAt":"2026-09-22T20:35:17.864Z","settled":81,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":46,"settled":81}}},"calls":85,"open":4,"settled":81,"right":46,"wrong":35,"hitRate":0.568,"avgMoveBps":175,"learning":{"weights":{"z":1,"rho":1,"beta":1,"halfLife":1},"signs":{"z":1,"rho":1,"beta":1,"halfLife":1},"detail":{"z":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":81,"pinned":0,"distinct":80,"cut":2.414,"lowN":40,"highN":41,"hiRate":0.439,"loRate":0.7,"gap":-0.261,"noise":0.33,"why":"the gap of 26 points does not clear the 33 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"rho":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":81,"pinned":0,"distinct":80,"cut":0.8303,"lowN":40,"highN":41,"hiRate":0.585,"loRate":0.55,"gap":0.035,"noise":0.33,"why":"the gap of 4 points does not clear the 33 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"beta":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":81,"pinned":0,"distinct":79,"cut":1.053,"lowN":40,"highN":41,"hiRate":0.537,"loRate":0.6,"gap":-0.063,"noise":0.33,"why":"the gap of 6 points does not clear the 33 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"halfLife":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":62,"pinned":0.226,"distinct":58,"cut":46.1,"lowN":31,"highN":31,"hiRate":0.613,"loRate":0.484,"gap":0.129,"noise":0.379,"why":"the gap of 13 points does not clear the 38 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":81,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"81 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":["beta","halfLife","rho","z"]},"recent":[{"subject":"amd-nvda:1794243308","direction":"yes","right":false,"moveBps":4849,"at":"2026-11-09T16:55:08.452Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T15:11:34.224Z"},{"subject":"nvda-qqq:1794239708","direction":"yes","right":false,"moveBps":3682,"at":"2026-11-09T15:55:08.452Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T15:11:34.224Z"},{"subject":"amd-nvda:1794236108","direction":"yes","right":false,"moveBps":2049,"at":"2026-11-09T14:55:08.452Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T16:55:08.452Z"},{"subject":"nvda-qqq:1794228908","direction":"yes","right":false,"moveBps":2116,"at":"2026-11-09T12:55:08.452Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T15:55:08.452Z"},{"subject":"amd-nvda:1794225308","direction":"yes","right":false,"moveBps":3725,"at":"2026-11-09T11:55:08.452Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T14:55:08.452Z"},{"subject":"amd-nvda:1794195779","direction":"yes","right":false,"moveBps":3153,"at":"2026-11-09T03:42:59.053Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T11:55:08.452Z"},{"subject":"nvda-qqq:1794195779","direction":"yes","right":false,"moveBps":2668,"at":"2026-11-09T03:42:59.053Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T12:55:08.452Z"},{"subject":"amd-nvda:1794184979","direction":"yes","right":false,"moveBps":3853,"at":"2026-11-09T00:42:59.034Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T03:42:59.053Z"}]},"perps":{"desk":"perps","lifetime":{"right":214,"wrong":249,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T17:18:21.773Z","claimed":473,"firstAt":"2026-09-09T10:05:35.569Z","settled":463,"byEncoding":{"1":{"right":0,"settled":3},"2":{"right":214,"settled":460}},"seededFromSurvivingRows":true},"calls":412,"open":10,"settled":402,"right":188,"wrong":214,"hitRate":0.468,"avgMoveBps":7,"learning":{"weights":{"flow":1,"basis":1,"trend":1,"meanRevert":1,"volatility":1,"macd":1,"vwap":1,"bands":1,"structure":1,"chart":1,"stance":1,"registry":1},"signs":{"flow":1,"basis":1,"trend":1,"meanRevert":1,"volatility":1,"macd":1,"vwap":1,"bands":1,"structure":1,"chart":1,"stance":1,"registry":1},"detail":{"flow":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":402,"pinned":0.002,"distinct":18,"cut":20,"lowN":233,"highN":169,"hiRate":0.467,"loRate":0.468,"gap":0,"noise":0.151,"why":"the gap of 0 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"basis":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":243,"pinned":0.284,"distinct":175,"cut":31.02851910882093,"lowN":121,"highN":122,"hiRate":0.59,"loRate":0.421,"gap":0.169,"noise":0.192,"why":"the gap of 17 points does not clear the 19 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"trend":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":402,"pinned":0.152,"distinct":258,"cut":26.75,"lowN":201,"highN":201,"hiRate":0.433,"loRate":0.502,"gap":-0.07,"noise":0.149,"why":"the gap of 7 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"meanRevert":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":402,"pinned":0,"distinct":402,"cut":-4.58333333333523,"lowN":201,"highN":201,"hiRate":0.488,"loRate":0.448,"gap":0.04,"noise":0.149,"why":"the gap of 4 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"volatility":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":402,"pinned":0.356,"distinct":249,"cut":68.79310344827586,"lowN":201,"highN":201,"hiRate":0.418,"loRate":0.517,"gap":-0.1,"noise":0.149,"why":"the gap of 10 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"macd":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":322,"pinned":0,"distinct":118,"cut":1.3333333333333333,"lowN":159,"highN":163,"hiRate":0.497,"loRate":0.478,"gap":0.019,"noise":0.167,"why":"the gap of 2 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"vwap":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":322,"pinned":0,"distinct":222,"cut":13.381434887906488,"lowN":161,"highN":161,"hiRate":0.422,"loRate":0.553,"gap":-0.13,"noise":0.167,"why":"the gap of 13 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"bands":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":322,"pinned":0,"distinct":129,"cut":8.559999999999999,"lowN":161,"highN":161,"hiRate":0.435,"loRate":0.54,"gap":-0.106,"noise":0.167,"why":"the gap of 11 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"structure":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":322,"pinned":0,"distinct":13,"cut":25,"lowN":160,"highN":162,"hiRate":0.463,"loRate":0.512,"gap":-0.05,"noise":0.167,"why":"the gap of 5 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"chart":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":272,"pinned":0,"distinct":62,"cut":11,"lowN":133,"highN":139,"hiRate":0.489,"loRate":0.534,"gap":-0.045,"noise":0.182,"why":"the gap of 4 points does not clear the 18 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"stance":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":272,"pinned":0.695,"distinct":3,"cut":0,"lowN":109,"highN":163,"hiRate":0.485,"loRate":0.55,"gap":-0.066,"noise":0.186,"why":"the gap of 7 points does not clear the 19 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"registry":{"measurable":false,"n":0,"pinned":null,"why":"0 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"}},"learning":true,"samples":402,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"402 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":["bands","basis","chart","flow","macd","meanRevert","stance","structure","trend","volatility","vwap"]},"recent":[{"subject":"ZEC:2026-11-10","direction":"short","right":false,"moveBps":112,"at":"2026-11-10T17:11:49.054Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:18:21.773Z"},{"subject":"META:2026-11-10","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":170,"at":"2026-11-10T13:41:51.873Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T14:06:04.438Z"},{"subject":"OPENAI:2026-11-10","direction":"short","right":false,"moveBps":352,"at":"2026-11-10T12:11:51.889Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T12:36:06.236Z"},{"subject":"AMD:2026-11-10","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":691,"at":"2026-11-10T10:11:49.183Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T10:39:45.844Z"},{"subject":"TSLA:2026-11-10","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":293,"at":"2026-11-10T09:42:04.117Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T10:09:45.776Z"},{"subject":"MU:2026-11-10","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":335,"at":"2026-11-10T07:43:36.247Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T07:49:34.628Z"},{"subject":"HYPE:2026-11-09","direction":"short","right":true,"moveBps":-241,"at":"2026-11-09T14:55:35.791Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T15:11:35.326Z"},{"subject":"XRP:2026-11-09","direction":"short","right":false,"moveBps":-125,"at":"2026-11-09T12:25:22.555Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T12:41:35.123Z"}]},"alerts":{"desk":"alerts","lifetime":{"right":52,"wrong":475,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T17:08:20.245Z","claimed":529,"firstAt":"2026-10-04T16:37:08.961Z","settled":527,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":52,"settled":527}}},"calls":402,"open":2,"settled":400,"right":40,"wrong":360,"hitRate":0.1,"avgMoveBps":null,"learning":{"weights":{"grace":0.737,"severity":1},"signs":{"grace":-1,"severity":1},"detail":{"grace":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":400,"pinned":0,"distinct":4,"cut":18,"lowN":26,"highN":374,"hiRate":0.083,"loRate":0.346,"gap":-0.263,"noise":0.183,"why":"right 8% of the time when it reads above 18 against 35% when it reads at or below"},"severity":{"measurable":false,"constant":true,"n":400,"pinned":0,"distinct":1,"why":"it read the same value in all 400 cases, so it is a constant rather than a feature"}},"learning":true,"samples":400,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":1,"constants":1,"note":"weighted by 400 settled calls; 1 of 2 features tell the winners from the losers by more than luck would, and none carries more than 1.5.","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"voice.credit","direction":"pages","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T16:08:20.125Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:08:20.245Z"},{"subject":"health.perps","direction":"pages","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T10:09:46.391Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T10:14:46.392Z"},{"subject":"health.poiesis","direction":"pages","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T08:39:49.356Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T08:44:44.856Z"},{"subject":"health.hincDesk","direction":"pages","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T08:39:49.356Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T08:44:44.856Z"},{"subject":"health.indexDesk","direction":"pages","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T08:39:49.356Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T08:44:44.856Z"},{"subject":"health.perps","direction":"pages","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T04:41:46.150Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T04:46:46.150Z"},{"subject":"health.perps","direction":"pages","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T20:29:16.473Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T20:34:16.474Z"},{"subject":"health.perps","direction":"pages","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T15:11:36.100Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T15:16:36.101Z"}]},"borrow":{"desk":"borrow","lifetime":{"right":0,"wrong":1,"lastAt":"2026-10-15T16:36:41.435Z","claimed":1,"firstAt":"2026-10-15T16:36:41.435Z","settled":1,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":0,"settled":1}}},"calls":1,"open":0,"settled":1,"right":0,"wrong":1,"hitRate":0,"avgMoveBps":670,"learning":{"weights":{"lltv":1,"used":1},"signs":{"lltv":1,"used":1},"learning":false,"samples":1,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"note":"1 settled call in the current encoding; nothing is weighted under 12, and a feature earns weight only once 30 cases carry it with at least 8 either side of the cut.","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"loan-0f3cd7cd28c78a22:1791160742539","direction":"stays-inside","right":false,"moveBps":670,"at":"2026-10-05T00:39:02.539Z","settledAt":"2026-10-15T16:36:41.435Z"}]},"launch":{"desk":"launch","lifetime":{"right":0,"wrong":2,"lastAt":"2026-11-03T21:40:00.093Z","claimed":4,"firstAt":"2026-11-03T04:59:21.398Z","settled":2,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":0,"settled":2}}},"calls":4,"open":2,"settled":2,"right":0,"wrong":2,"hitRate":0,"avgMoveBps":null,"learning":{"weights":{"pair":1,"venue":1,"devBuy":1,"preset":1,"hourUtc":1,"targetEth":1,"feesRouted":1},"signs":{"pair":1,"venue":1,"devBuy":1,"preset":1,"hourUtc":1,"targetEth":1,"feesRouted":1},"learning":false,"samples":2,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"note":"2 settled calls in the current encoding; nothing is weighted under 12, and a feature earns weight only once 30 cases carry it with at least 8 either side of the cut.","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"0x173ba94da317537af87409d8f6a16103edf1870e","direction":"bonds","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-27T21:33:23.215Z","settledAt":"2026-11-03T21:40:00.093Z"},{"subject":"0x2ef431b8da665725697d36970e5a0e3556131ad5","direction":"bonds","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-27T04:50:36.182Z","settledAt":"2026-11-03T04:59:21.398Z"}]},"trader":{"desk":"trader","lifetime":{"right":12,"wrong":21,"lastAt":"2026-09-14T13:34:46.609Z","claimed":33,"firstAt":"2026-09-09T12:27:18.290Z","settled":33,"byEncoding":{"1":{"right":2,"settled":5},"2":{"right":10,"settled":28}},"seededFromSurvivingRows":true},"calls":33,"open":0,"settled":33,"right":12,"wrong":21,"hitRate":0.364,"avgMoveBps":null,"learning":{"weights":{"edge":1,"winOdds":1,"headroom":1,"buyerLead":1},"signs":{"edge":1,"winOdds":1,"headroom":1,"buyerLead":1},"detail":{"edge":{"measurable":false,"n":28,"pinned":0,"why":"28 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"winOdds":{"measurable":false,"n":28,"pinned":0.286,"why":"28 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"headroom":{"measurable":false,"n":28,"pinned":0,"why":"28 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"buyerLead":{"measurable":false,"n":28,"pinned":0,"why":"28 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"}},"learning":true,"samples":28,"legacy":5,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"28 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet. 5 older calls are kept but not counted, because they were recorded in a different encoding","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"FOXEL:tmu1aberk","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-09-14T13:34:35.890Z","settledAt":"2026-09-14T13:34:46.609Z"},{"subject":"Bourse:tmu06iq5o","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-09-13T19:00:35.761Z","settledAt":"2026-09-13T19:05:59.814Z"},{"subject":"YOYO:tmtzxcfpd","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-09-13T14:43:42.728Z","settledAt":"2026-09-13T14:44:03.093Z"},{"subject":"ASTRAL:tmtzx0uu4","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-09-13T14:34:43.835Z","settledAt":"2026-09-13T14:35:24.938Z"},{"subject":"RBS:tmtymzcxh","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-09-12T17:05:50.452Z","settledAt":"2026-09-12T17:05:56.218Z"},{"subject":"LONGCAT:tmtyfisf5","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-09-12T13:37:01.791Z","settledAt":"2026-09-12T13:37:21.829Z"},{"subject":"Charizard:tmtxo2zsn","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-09-12T00:48:58.558Z","settledAt":"2026-09-12T00:48:59.247Z"},{"subject":"DO:tmtxo1u13","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-09-12T00:48:01.626Z","settledAt":"2026-09-12T00:48:08.141Z"}]},"mmvault":{"desk":"mmvault","lifetime":{"right":6,"wrong":1,"lastAt":"2026-11-10T23:34:35.452Z","claimed":9,"firstAt":"2026-10-21T14:02:26.897Z","settled":7,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":6,"settled":7}}},"calls":9,"open":2,"settled":7,"right":6,"wrong":1,"hitRate":0.857,"avgMoveBps":15,"learning":{"weights":{"volBps":1,"bandBps":1,"widthMult":1},"signs":{"volBps":1,"bandBps":1,"widthMult":1},"learning":false,"samples":7,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"note":"7 settled calls in the current encoding; nothing is weighted under 12, and a feature earns weight only once 30 cases carry it with at least 8 either side of the cut.","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"0x541942afd092e6c18ccd56bb3d9205f80a2adce77edf260c464c5f9919f37168","direction":"hold","right":true,"moveBps":-451,"at":"2026-11-09T23:25:08.705Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T23:34:35.452Z"},{"subject":"0x541942afd092e6c18ccd56bb3d9205f80a2adce77edf260c464c5f9919f37168","direction":"hold","right":true,"moveBps":-556,"at":"2026-11-08T22:42:59.112Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T22:55:08.705Z"},{"subject":"0x541942afd092e6c18ccd56bb3d9205f80a2adce77edf260c464c5f9919f37168","direction":"hold","right":true,"moveBps":-338,"at":"2026-11-05T11:19:43.093Z","settledAt":"2026-11-06T11:29:06.208Z"},{"subject":"0x541942afd092e6c18ccd56bb3d9205f80a2adce77edf260c464c5f9919f37168","direction":"hold","right":true,"moveBps":553,"at":"2026-11-04T10:35:30.437Z","settledAt":"2026-11-05T10:48:43.738Z"},{"subject":"0x5875d407a42965b0e768c8925cea290e06fa50603ef34fc99eb92a1050e6ae36","direction":"hold","right":true,"moveBps":71,"at":"2026-10-22T21:13:44.746Z","settledAt":"2026-10-23T21:31:26.477Z"},{"subject":"0x5875d407a42965b0e768c8925cea290e06fa50603ef34fc99eb92a1050e6ae36","direction":"hold","right":false,"moveBps":1196,"at":"2026-10-21T20:32:28.515Z","settledAt":"2026-10-22T21:13:44.746Z"},{"subject":"0x5875d407a42965b0e768c8925cea290e06fa50603ef34fc99eb92a1050e6ae36","direction":"hold","right":true,"moveBps":-367,"at":"2026-10-20T13:50:57.860Z","settledAt":"2026-10-21T14:02:26.897Z"}]},"predict":{"desk":"predict","lifetime":{"right":14,"wrong":9,"lastAt":"2026-10-30T20:03:01.431Z","claimed":23,"firstAt":"2026-10-15T04:36:21.370Z","settled":23,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":14,"settled":23}}},"calls":23,"open":0,"settled":23,"right":14,"wrong":9,"hitRate":0.609,"avgMoveBps":-1119,"learning":{"weights":{"ev":1,"edge":1,"hoursLeft":1,"priceRoom":1},"signs":{"ev":1,"edge":1,"hoursLeft":1,"priceRoom":1},"detail":{"ev":{"measurable":false,"n":23,"pinned":1,"why":"23 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"edge":{"measurable":false,"n":23,"pinned":1,"why":"23 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"hoursLeft":{"measurable":false,"n":23,"pinned":0.043,"why":"23 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"priceRoom":{"measurable":false,"n":23,"pinned":0,"why":"23 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"}},"learning":true,"samples":23,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"23 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"kalshi:KXBTCD-26OCT2922-T76299.99:yes","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":1687,"at":"2026-10-30T01:26:16.270Z","settledAt":"2026-10-30T01:45:14.950Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXBNBD-26OCT3017-T674.99:yes","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":2556,"at":"2026-10-30T00:42:33.463Z","settledAt":"2026-10-30T20:03:01.431Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXBTCD-26OCT2921-T77399.99:yes","direction":"yes","right":false,"moveBps":-10000,"at":"2026-10-30T00:12:38.495Z","settledAt":"2026-10-30T01:02:16.391Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXBTCD-26OCT2917-T79999.99:yes","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":4839,"at":"2026-10-29T20:07:04.980Z","settledAt":"2026-10-29T20:26:41.109Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXBTCD-26OCT2915-T80399.99:yes","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":1512,"at":"2026-10-29T18:37:01.215Z","settledAt":"2026-10-29T18:56:40.306Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXBNBD-26OCT2917-T759.99:no","direction":"no","right":true,"moveBps":6667,"at":"2026-10-29T16:37:29.830Z","settledAt":"2026-10-29T21:06:42.506Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXBTCD-26OCT2817-T81599.99:no","direction":"no","right":false,"moveBps":1899,"at":"2026-10-28T18:37:03.093Z","settledAt":"2026-10-28T20:16:19.783Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXBTCD-26OCT2817B-T79799.99:yes","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":1163,"at":"2026-10-28T12:16:32.404Z","settledAt":"2026-10-28T18:36:42.739Z"}]},"activity":{"desk":"activity","lifetime":{"right":25,"wrong":5,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T03:42:55.387Z","claimed":80,"firstAt":"2026-10-25T03:35:23.158Z","settled":30,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":25,"settled":30}}},"calls":80,"open":50,"settled":30,"right":25,"wrong":5,"hitRate":0.833,"avgMoveBps":12,"learning":{"weights":{},"signs":{},"detail":{},"learning":true,"samples":30,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"30 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"txs:1d:2026-11-10","direction":"inside","right":true,"moveBps":-475,"at":"2026-11-09T03:42:59.059Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T03:42:55.387Z"},{"subject":"txs:1d:2026-11-09","direction":"inside","right":true,"moveBps":635,"at":"2026-11-08T03:39:30.848Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T03:37:31.487Z"},{"subject":"txs:1d:2026-11-08","direction":"inside","right":true,"moveBps":296,"at":"2026-11-07T04:29:06.196Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T03:42:59.059Z"},{"subject":"txs:1d:2026-11-07","direction":"inside","right":true,"moveBps":-1724,"at":"2026-11-06T03:31:18.227Z","settledAt":"2026-11-08T03:39:30.848Z"},{"subject":"txs:1d:2026-11-06","direction":"inside","right":true,"moveBps":218,"at":"2026-11-05T03:36:00.124Z","settledAt":"2026-11-07T04:29:06.196Z"},{"subject":"txs:1d:2026-11-05","direction":"inside","right":false,"moveBps":3360,"at":"2026-11-04T03:35:30.046Z","settledAt":"2026-11-06T03:31:18.227Z"},{"subject":"txs:7d:2026-11-04","direction":"inside","right":false,"moveBps":841,"at":"2026-11-03T03:45:11.933Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T03:42:55.387Z"},{"subject":"txs:1d:2026-11-04","direction":"inside","right":true,"moveBps":2093,"at":"2026-11-03T03:45:11.933Z","settledAt":"2026-11-05T03:36:00.124Z"}]},"earnings":{"desk":"earnings","lifetime":{"right":215,"wrong":47,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T12:36:03.991Z","claimed":278,"firstAt":"2026-10-02T12:26:23.689Z","settled":262,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":215,"settled":262}}},"calls":278,"open":16,"settled":262,"right":215,"wrong":47,"hitRate":0.821,"avgMoveBps":50875,"learning":{"weights":{"model":1.148,"analyst":1},"signs":{"model":1,"analyst":1},"detail":{"model":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":259,"pinned":1,"distinct":157,"cut":2560,"lowN":129,"highN":130,"hiRate":0.892,"loRate":0.744,"gap":0.148,"noise":0.144,"why":"right 89% of the time when it reads above 2560 against 74% when it reads at or below"},"analyst":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":257,"pinned":0.872,"distinct":147,"cut":-50,"lowN":127,"highN":130,"hiRate":0.838,"loRate":0.795,"gap":0.043,"noise":0.145,"why":"the gap of 4 points does not clear the 14 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":262,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":1,"constants":0,"note":"weighted by 262 settled calls; 1 of 2 features tell the winners from the losers by more than luck would, and none carries more than 1.5.","retired":["analyst"]},"recent":[{"subject":"KMB:Sep 2026","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":-1737,"at":"2026-11-04T18:35:30.773Z","settledAt":"2026-11-07T12:07:03.884Z"},{"subject":"B:Sep 2026","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":130939,"at":"2026-11-03T00:19:45.376Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T12:36:03.991Z"},{"subject":"OXY:Sep 2026","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":393001,"at":"2026-11-03T00:19:45.376Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T12:36:03.991Z"},{"subject":"KKR:Sep 2026","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":188005,"at":"2026-11-03T00:19:45.376Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T12:36:03.991Z"},{"subject":"CEG:Sep 2026","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":385479,"at":"2026-11-03T00:19:45.376Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T12:36:03.991Z"},{"subject":"BAM:Sep 2026","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":72667,"at":"2026-10-31T00:23:46.539Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T13:55:08.578Z"},{"subject":"ENB:Sep 2026","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":135375,"at":"2026-10-31T00:23:46.539Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T13:55:08.578Z"},{"subject":"ROK:Sep 2026","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":41008,"at":"2026-10-30T18:22:19.735Z","settledAt":"2026-11-07T12:07:03.884Z"}]},"flywheel":{"desk":"flywheel","lifetime":{"right":2194,"wrong":3137,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T17:51:23.209Z","claimed":5421,"firstAt":"2026-09-13T07:40:19.037Z","settled":5331,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":2194,"settled":5331}}},"calls":491,"open":90,"settled":401,"right":105,"wrong":296,"hitRate":0.262,"avgMoveBps":-698,"learning":{"weights":{"rsi":1,"streak":1,"buyScore":1,"aggression":1,"momentumBps":1,"volatilityBps":1,"volumeFactorPct":1},"signs":{"rsi":1,"streak":1,"buyScore":1,"aggression":1,"momentumBps":1,"volatilityBps":1,"volumeFactorPct":1},"detail":{"rsi":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":401,"pinned":0.259,"distinct":40,"cut":42,"lowN":142,"highN":259,"hiRate":0.259,"loRate":0.268,"gap":-0.009,"noise":0.138,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 14 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"streak":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":401,"pinned":0,"distinct":6,"cut":0,"lowN":380,"highN":21,"hiRate":0.19,"loRate":0.266,"gap":-0.075,"noise":0.296,"why":"the gap of 8 points does not clear the 30 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"buyScore":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":401,"pinned":0,"distinct":9,"cut":50,"lowN":135,"highN":266,"hiRate":0.259,"loRate":0.267,"gap":-0.007,"noise":0.139,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 14 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"aggression":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":401,"pinned":0,"distinct":55,"cut":58,"lowN":197,"highN":204,"hiRate":0.255,"loRate":0.269,"gap":-0.014,"noise":0.132,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 13 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"momentumBps":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":401,"pinned":0.095,"distinct":134,"cut":-1,"lowN":141,"highN":260,"hiRate":0.265,"loRate":0.255,"gap":0.01,"noise":0.138,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 14 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"volatilityBps":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":401,"pinned":0.112,"distinct":113,"cut":7,"lowN":204,"highN":197,"hiRate":0.279,"loRate":0.245,"gap":0.034,"noise":0.132,"why":"the gap of 3 points does not clear the 13 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"volumeFactorPct":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":401,"pinned":0.611,"distinct":26,"cut":99,"lowN":156,"highN":245,"hiRate":0.298,"loRate":0.205,"gap":0.093,"noise":0.135,"why":"the gap of 9 points does not clear the 14 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":401,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"401 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":["aggression","buyScore","momentumBps","rsi","streak","volatilityBps","volumeFactorPct"]},"recent":[{"subject":"0x5d1d06aa024ae95bed3612d95e76565ed5579e1b6f32524d50db46ee84204643","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-869,"at":"2026-11-10T17:50:43.849Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:51:23.209Z"},{"subject":"0x190f734855289dd8f8610fe4bc1b6fa6cab08fe8495acf296406e78a63ac2e42","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-914,"at":"2026-11-10T17:34:43.824Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:35:23.155Z"},{"subject":"0x5b09b1e5631201d00705476515dfe518b92d4e07311e2e4b7514f0d088492a34","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-899,"at":"2026-11-10T17:18:45.519Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:19:23.096Z"},{"subject":"0x4c87d8e8e550e0f9c83b339694ce45218e737fafb65993f71275c3a763c1620b","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-858,"at":"2026-11-10T17:02:43.511Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:03:22.594Z"},{"subject":"0x100b4fc25f9179d650be438f8a806bb9003341f6c43ea99c4727f0310da6885a","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-948,"at":"2026-11-10T16:46:45.186Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T16:47:22.486Z"},{"subject":"0xcd3535cdf95f113cbef226b89cd8da16b80bdaa83bc066450e235ea1eaddf970","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1150,"at":"2026-11-10T16:30:43.832Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T16:31:22.389Z"},{"subject":"0x1eea617cb8dcf2fde2400b4ca05df0cb29b1bee0f194ca6b5b683f659b3904c8","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1146,"at":"2026-11-10T16:14:43.717Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T16:15:22.019Z"},{"subject":"0x090af1135b794d1d502c7a410844d4ed117a178ee251f957b3c1208eaa3ac3d7","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1755,"at":"2026-11-10T15:58:44.022Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T15:59:21.657Z"}]},"overtone":{"desk":"overtone","lifetime":{"right":723,"wrong":1643,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.581Z","claimed":5184,"firstAt":"2026-09-14T19:48:28.519Z","settled":2366,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":723,"settled":2366}}},"calls":1155,"open":755,"settled":400,"right":31,"wrong":369,"hitRate":0.077,"avgMoveBps":null,"learning":{"weights":{"rising":1,"topTen":1,"filling":1,"holders":1,"socials":1,"accounts":1,"progress":1,"topWallet":1},"signs":{"rising":1,"topTen":1,"filling":1,"holders":1,"socials":1,"accounts":1,"progress":1,"topWallet":1},"detail":{"rising":{"measurable":false,"n":0,"pinned":null,"why":"0 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"topTen":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":72,"pinned":0.056,"distinct":57,"cut":-11,"lowN":36,"highN":36,"hiRate":0.111,"loRate":0.056,"gap":0.056,"noise":0.195,"why":"the gap of 6 points does not clear the 20 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"filling":{"measurable":false,"n":0,"pinned":null,"why":"0 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"holders":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":72,"pinned":0.014,"distinct":47,"cut":-9,"lowN":35,"highN":37,"hiRate":0.081,"loRate":0.086,"gap":-0.005,"noise":0.196,"why":"the gap of 0 points does not clear the 20 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"socials":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":400,"pinned":0.995,"distinct":3,"cut":45,"lowN":25,"highN":375,"hiRate":0.083,"loRate":0,"gap":0.083,"noise":0.166,"why":"the gap of 8 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"accounts":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":400,"pinned":0.352,"distinct":25,"cut":-28,"lowN":218,"highN":182,"hiRate":0.082,"loRate":0.073,"gap":0.009,"noise":0.081,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 8 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"progress":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":400,"pinned":0,"distinct":78,"cut":23,"lowN":201,"highN":199,"hiRate":0.045,"loRate":0.109,"gap":-0.064,"noise":0.08,"why":"the gap of 6 points does not clear the 8 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"topWallet":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":72,"pinned":0.153,"distinct":36,"cut":68,"lowN":34,"highN":38,"hiRate":0.105,"loRate":0.059,"gap":0.046,"noise":0.196,"why":"the gap of 5 points does not clear the 20 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":400,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"400 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":["accounts","holders","progress","socials","topTen","topWallet"]},"recent":[{"subject":"0x839d6dea3de497ee5a8338410cb2865afa51141e","direction":"bond","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T00:13:21.163Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T09:39:45.123Z"},{"subject":"0xedc3bf57676d3ab56cf2a12a932169ff46ddc366","direction":"bond","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T17:41:34.723Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.581Z"},{"subject":"0xb0b5bb465b3dcd5757e7bd30bdc85c3415bf4e42","direction":"bond","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T17:41:34.723Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:48:19.581Z"},{"subject":"0xccf55e71d03ce2013e4b19c505cebb66e206b63c","direction":"bond","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T17:11:34.723Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:18:19.581Z"},{"subject":"0x5acb76ff3adb392fbdb4ec120d1494757aede484","direction":"bond","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T16:11:34.723Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T16:18:19.215Z"},{"subject":"0x29777aef8bfc236ff73f95adf934fead689617b0","direction":"bond","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T16:11:34.723Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T16:18:19.215Z"},{"subject":"0x64e9c90b4629f63c2afa06f87efc10fa91254885","direction":"bond","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T15:41:34.722Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T15:48:19.215Z"},{"subject":"0x8e04549484d0612be8373a0263b11928a5f7681f","direction":"bond","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T15:41:34.722Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T16:11:34.723Z"}]},"registry":{"desk":"registry","lifetime":{"right":156,"wrong":122,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T17:18:19.774Z","claimed":288,"firstAt":"2026-10-01T10:09:14.202Z","settled":278,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":156,"settled":278}}},"calls":288,"open":10,"settled":278,"right":156,"wrong":122,"hitRate":0.561,"avgMoveBps":-30,"learning":{"weights":{},"signs":{},"detail":{},"learning":true,"samples":278,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"278 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"f-mway6c00-42fff9","direction":"down","right":false,"moveBps":112,"at":"2026-11-10T17:11:49.056Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:18:19.774Z"},{"subject":"f-mwaqobyb-9edd7d","direction":"up","right":true,"moveBps":198,"at":"2026-11-10T13:41:51.875Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T13:51:05.069Z"},{"subject":"f-mwanglar-5923a8","direction":"down","right":false,"moveBps":337,"at":"2026-11-10T12:11:51.891Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T12:21:03.952Z"},{"subject":"f-mwaj67nk-c3e4cb","direction":"up","right":true,"moveBps":690,"at":"2026-11-10T10:11:49.184Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T10:24:45.244Z"},{"subject":"f-mwai3yae-c2ca61","direction":"up","right":true,"moveBps":303,"at":"2026-11-10T09:42:04.118Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T09:54:45.243Z"},{"subject":"f-mwadvltl-83cb14","direction":"up","right":true,"moveBps":335,"at":"2026-11-10T07:43:36.249Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T07:49:33.724Z"},{"subject":"f-mw9dvasw-6a887e","direction":"down","right":true,"moveBps":-338,"at":"2026-11-09T14:55:35.792Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T14:56:35.515Z"},{"subject":"f-mw98i458-966559","direction":"down","right":true,"moveBps":-117,"at":"2026-11-09T12:25:22.556Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T12:26:35.270Z"}]},"timeline":{"desk":"timeline","lifetime":{"right":124,"wrong":136,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T01:32:26.931Z","claimed":270,"firstAt":"2026-10-04T19:04:11.258Z","settled":260,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":124,"settled":260}}},"calls":270,"open":10,"settled":260,"right":124,"wrong":136,"hitRate":0.477,"avgMoveBps":null,"learning":{"weights":{"hour":1,"kind":1,"plate":1.255,"length":1},"signs":{"hour":1,"kind":1,"plate":1,"length":1},"detail":{"hour":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":260,"pinned":0.027,"distinct":24,"cut":-8,"lowN":127,"highN":133,"hiRate":0.511,"loRate":0.441,"gap":0.07,"noise":0.186,"why":"the gap of 7 points does not clear the 19 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"kind":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":260,"pinned":1,"distinct":2,"cut":-100,"lowN":164,"highN":96,"hiRate":0.469,"loRate":0.482,"gap":-0.013,"noise":0.193,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 19 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"plate":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":260,"pinned":1,"distinct":2,"cut":-100,"lowN":189,"highN":71,"hiRate":0.662,"loRate":0.407,"gap":0.255,"noise":0.209,"why":"right 66% of the time when it reads above -100 against 41% when it reads at or below"},"length":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":260,"pinned":0,"distinct":32,"cut":-5,"lowN":134,"highN":126,"hiRate":0.508,"loRate":0.448,"gap":0.06,"noise":0.186,"why":"the gap of 6 points does not clear the 19 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":260,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":1,"constants":0,"note":"weighted by 260 settled calls; 1 of 4 features tell the winners from the losers by more than luck would, and none carries more than 1.5.","retired":["hour","kind","length"]},"recent":[{"subject":"2119964725190500479","direction":"lands","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T01:25:52.388Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T01:32:26.931Z"},{"subject":"2119904079119872502","direction":"lands","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-09T21:24:53.375Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T01:32:26.931Z"},{"subject":"2119843359233597934","direction":"lands","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-09T17:23:36.651Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T01:32:26.931Z"},{"subject":"2119779711660241315","direction":"lands","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-09T13:10:41.740Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T01:32:26.931Z"},{"subject":"2119719073055465789","direction":"lands","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-09T09:09:44.459Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T01:32:26.931Z"},{"subject":"2119658335842545913","direction":"lands","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-09T05:08:23.562Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T01:32:26.931Z"},{"subject":"2119597720595784087","direction":"lands","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-09T01:07:31.666Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T01:25:22.791Z"},{"subject":"2119537084717318561","direction":"lands","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-08T21:06:35.163Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T01:25:22.791Z"}]},"allocator":{"desk":"allocator","lifetime":{"right":1340,"wrong":1166,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T17:18:39.468Z","claimed":2522,"firstAt":"2026-09-13T08:40:32.560Z","settled":2506,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":1340,"settled":2506}}},"calls":417,"open":17,"settled":400,"right":199,"wrong":201,"hitRate":0.497,"avgMoveBps":293,"learning":{"weights":{"z":1,"rsi":1.195,"pctB":1,"streak":1,"drawdownBps":1,"macdHistBps":1,"volatilityBps":1},"signs":{"z":1,"rsi":1,"pctB":1,"streak":1,"drawdownBps":1,"macdHistBps":1,"volatilityBps":1},"detail":{"z":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":400,"pinned":0.552,"distinct":266,"cut":-26,"lowN":200,"highN":200,"hiRate":0.54,"loRate":0.455,"gap":0.085,"noise":0.15,"why":"the gap of 9 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"rsi":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":400,"pinned":0.033,"distinct":101,"cut":49,"lowN":200,"highN":200,"hiRate":0.595,"loRate":0.4,"gap":0.195,"noise":0.15,"why":"right 60% of the time when it reads above 49 against 40% when it reads at or below"},"pctB":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":400,"pinned":0.063,"distinct":134,"cut":43,"lowN":199,"highN":201,"hiRate":0.542,"loRate":0.452,"gap":0.09,"noise":0.15,"why":"the gap of 9 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"streak":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":400,"pinned":0,"distinct":10,"cut":0,"lowN":368,"highN":32,"hiRate":0.594,"loRate":0.489,"gap":0.105,"noise":0.276,"why":"the gap of 10 points does not clear the 28 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"drawdownBps":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":400,"pinned":0.593,"distinct":264,"cut":164,"lowN":200,"highN":200,"hiRate":0.435,"loRate":0.56,"gap":-0.125,"noise":0.15,"why":"the gap of 13 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"macdHistBps":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":400,"pinned":0.007,"distinct":85,"cut":-1,"lowN":194,"highN":206,"hiRate":0.485,"loRate":0.51,"gap":-0.025,"noise":0.15,"why":"the gap of 2 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"volatilityBps":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":400,"pinned":0.15,"distinct":133,"cut":15,"lowN":202,"highN":198,"hiRate":0.505,"loRate":0.49,"gap":0.015,"noise":0.15,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":400,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":1,"constants":0,"note":"weighted by 400 settled calls; 1 of 7 features tell the winners from the losers by more than luck would, and none carries more than 1.5.","retired":["drawdownBps","macdHistBps","pctB","streak","volatilityBps","z"]},"recent":[{"subject":"split:2026-11-10T17:01:48.493Z","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-871,"at":"2026-11-10T17:01:48.494Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:18:39.468Z"},{"subject":"split:2026-11-10T15:51:49.947Z","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1543,"at":"2026-11-10T15:51:49.949Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T16:08:26.937Z"},{"subject":"split:2026-11-10T14:11:58.531Z","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1983,"at":"2026-11-10T14:11:58.533Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T15:08:26.273Z"},{"subject":"split:2026-11-10T13:11:59.851Z","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-888,"at":"2026-11-10T13:11:59.852Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T14:06:24.799Z"},{"subject":"split:2026-11-10T12:11:58.954Z","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1108,"at":"2026-11-10T12:11:58.956Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T14:06:24.799Z"},{"subject":"split:2026-11-10T11:11:56.199Z","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1455,"at":"2026-11-10T11:11:56.201Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T11:40:07.319Z"},{"subject":"split:2026-11-10T10:11:58.701Z","direction":"short","right":true,"moveBps":-1167,"at":"2026-11-10T10:11:58.702Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T11:40:07.319Z"},{"subject":"split:2026-11-10T09:04:52.590Z","direction":"short","right":true,"moveBps":-692,"at":"2026-11-10T09:04:52.591Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T11:40:07.319Z"}]},"chartdesk":{"desk":"chartdesk","lifetime":{"right":56,"wrong":27,"lastAt":"2026-11-06T21:59:07.952Z","claimed":84,"firstAt":"2026-09-20T00:07:17.596Z","settled":83,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":56,"settled":83}}},"calls":84,"open":1,"settled":83,"right":56,"wrong":27,"hitRate":0.675,"avgMoveBps":104819221,"learning":{"weights":{"band":1,"vwap":1,"trend":1,"strength":1,"structure":1,"divergence":1,"confirm":1},"signs":{"band":1,"vwap":1,"trend":1,"strength":1,"structure":1,"divergence":1,"confirm":1},"detail":{"band":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":83,"pinned":0,"distinct":2,"cut":0,"lowN":63,"highN":20,"hiRate":0.8,"loRate":0.635,"gap":0.165,"noise":0.361,"why":"the gap of 17 points does not clear the 36 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"vwap":{"measurable":false,"n":83,"pinned":0,"distinct":3,"why":"its readings cannot be split into two groups of 8; the most even cut leaves 7 on one side"},"trend":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":83,"pinned":0,"distinct":3,"cut":0,"lowN":27,"highN":56,"hiRate":0.732,"loRate":0.556,"gap":0.177,"noise":0.329,"why":"the gap of 18 points does not clear the 33 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"strength":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":83,"pinned":0,"distinct":2,"cut":0,"lowN":19,"highN":64,"hiRate":0.719,"loRate":0.526,"gap":0.192,"noise":0.367,"why":"the gap of 19 points does not clear the 37 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"structure":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":83,"pinned":0,"distinct":3,"cut":0,"lowN":29,"highN":54,"hiRate":0.667,"loRate":0.69,"gap":-0.023,"noise":0.324,"why":"the gap of 2 points does not clear the 32 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"divergence":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":83,"pinned":0,"distinct":3,"cut":-1,"lowN":12,"highN":71,"hiRate":0.69,"loRate":0.583,"gap":0.107,"noise":0.439,"why":"the gap of 11 points does not clear the 44 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"confirm":{"measurable":false,"n":9,"pinned":0,"why":"9 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"}},"learning":true,"samples":83,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"83 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":["band","divergence","strength","structure","trend"]},"recent":[{"subject":"0x100765a16f42636bd84ee1e86bc5107b84bcdba3:4h","direction":"constructive","right":false,"moveBps":-2108,"at":"2026-11-02T09:19:05.548Z","settledAt":"2026-11-06T21:59:07.952Z"},{"subject":"0xfad17d7cc41d9c9ca4a459da798a4446dd217974:4h","direction":"constructive","right":true,"moveBps":138,"at":"2026-10-29T07:14:58.467Z","settledAt":"2026-10-30T10:22:21.873Z"},{"subject":"0x985ff6b07d77121ebbb4074c35b7a022d61123ad:1h","direction":"defensive","right":true,"moveBps":-1542,"at":"2026-10-28T03:56:40.357Z","settledAt":"2026-10-29T17:25:37.843Z"},{"subject":"0x81e770ba8343232b6f200209bf9a2c1430c2dea1:4h","direction":"defensive","right":true,"moveBps":-719,"at":"2026-10-27T18:35:06.984Z","settledAt":"2026-10-29T08:55:38.060Z"},{"subject":"0x116f00968269b7bfbad4109ce591d6e74c0601d4:1d","direction":"constructive","right":false,"moveBps":-1542,"at":"2026-10-27T04:33:13.366Z","settledAt":"2026-10-31T02:23:53.578Z"},{"subject":"0xdee52f2ab639b6942b0d0f0565400b93b7a0fbe5:4h","direction":"constructive","right":true,"moveBps":-1778,"at":"2026-10-27T02:24:13.693Z","settledAt":"2026-10-29T00:25:35.481Z"},{"subject":"0xa2e571ad3535e4ea43daa427ef25c2bcfc743c67:4h","direction":"defensive","right":false,"moveBps":1310,"at":"2026-10-24T07:48:10.777Z","settledAt":"2026-10-28T16:25:44.296Z"},{"subject":"0xf972815cb51f70b000a24dde0b955eb7c9b5709e:4h","direction":"constructive","right":false,"moveBps":-2791,"at":"2026-10-23T12:38:37.695Z","settledAt":"2026-10-25T01:05:50.314Z"}]},"fundboard":{"desk":"fundboard","lifetime":{"right":496,"wrong":142,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T14:46:05.282Z","claimed":638,"firstAt":"2026-10-13T01:31:27.725Z","settled":638,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":496,"settled":638}}},"calls":429,"open":0,"settled":429,"right":355,"wrong":74,"hitRate":0.828,"avgMoveBps":-11,"learning":{"weights":{"gap":1,"size":1,"coverage":1.226},"signs":{"gap":1,"size":1,"coverage":1},"detail":{"gap":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":429,"pinned":0.002,"distinct":350,"cut":3.17,"lowN":214,"highN":215,"hiRate":0.791,"loRate":0.864,"gap":-0.074,"noise":0.109,"why":"the gap of 7 points does not clear the 11 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"size":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":429,"pinned":0,"distinct":409,"cut":1.585,"lowN":214,"highN":215,"hiRate":0.874,"loRate":0.78,"gap":0.094,"noise":0.109,"why":"the gap of 9 points does not clear the 11 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"coverage":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":429,"pinned":0,"distinct":338,"cut":32.09,"lowN":213,"highN":216,"hiRate":0.94,"loRate":0.714,"gap":0.226,"noise":0.109,"why":"right 94% of the time when it reads above 32.09 against 71% when it reads at or below"}},"learning":true,"samples":429,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":1,"constants":0,"note":"weighted by 429 settled calls; 1 of 3 features tell the winners from the losers by more than luck would, and none carries more than 1.5.","retired":["gap","size"]},"recent":[{"subject":"TVAL:2026-11-10","direction":"down","right":false,"moveBps":18,"at":"2026-11-10T21:09:18.492Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T14:46:05.282Z"},{"subject":"TURF:2026-11-10","direction":"down","right":true,"moveBps":-126,"at":"2026-11-10T21:09:18.492Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T14:46:05.282Z"},{"subject":"TTEQ:2026-11-10","direction":"down","right":true,"moveBps":-103,"at":"2026-11-10T21:09:18.492Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T14:36:05.319Z"},{"subject":"TSPA:2026-11-10","direction":"down","right":true,"moveBps":-44,"at":"2026-11-10T21:09:18.492Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T14:36:05.319Z"},{"subject":"TSEE:2026-11-10","direction":"down","right":true,"moveBps":-66,"at":"2026-11-10T21:09:18.492Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T14:36:05.319Z"},{"subject":"TOUS:2026-11-10","direction":"down","right":true,"moveBps":-73,"at":"2026-11-10T21:09:18.492Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T14:26:05.341Z"},{"subject":"TNXT:2026-11-10","direction":"down","right":true,"moveBps":-65,"at":"2026-11-10T21:09:18.492Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T14:26:05.341Z"},{"subject":"TMSL:2026-11-10","direction":"down","right":true,"moveBps":-40,"at":"2026-11-10T21:09:18.492Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T14:16:05.373Z"}]},"hinc-legs":{"desk":"hinc-legs","lifetime":{"right":33,"wrong":43,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T15:48:41.765Z","claimed":76,"firstAt":"2026-10-05T00:37:27.223Z","settled":76,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":33,"settled":76}}},"calls":76,"open":0,"settled":76,"right":33,"wrong":43,"hitRate":0.434,"avgMoveBps":517,"learning":{"weights":{"size":1,"depth":1,"appliedScale":1},"signs":{"size":1,"depth":1,"appliedScale":1},"detail":{"size":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":76,"pinned":0,"distinct":23,"cut":62,"lowN":38,"highN":38,"hiRate":0.395,"loRate":0.474,"gap":-0.079,"noise":0.341,"why":"the gap of 8 points does not clear the 34 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"depth":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":76,"pinned":0.026,"distinct":58,"cut":48,"lowN":38,"highN":38,"hiRate":0.421,"loRate":0.447,"gap":-0.026,"noise":0.341,"why":"the gap of 3 points does not clear the 34 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"appliedScale":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":76,"pinned":0,"distinct":8,"cut":16,"lowN":40,"highN":36,"hiRate":0.306,"loRate":0.55,"gap":-0.244,"noise":0.342,"why":"the gap of 24 points does not clear the 34 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":76,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"76 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":["appliedScale","depth","size"]},"recent":[{"subject":"SGOV:bought:0xf64e4d8d","direction":"fills-inside","right":false,"moveBps":3879,"at":"2026-11-11T15:48:41.399Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T15:48:41.765Z"},{"subject":"MU:sold:0xf64e4d8d","direction":"fills-inside","right":false,"moveBps":4850,"at":"2026-11-11T15:48:41.399Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T15:48:41.765Z"},{"subject":"NVDA:bought:0x5a22c462","direction":"fills-inside","right":true,"moveBps":-1705,"at":"2026-11-11T07:19:44.914Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T07:19:48.967Z"},{"subject":"MU:sold:0x5a22c462","direction":"fills-inside","right":true,"moveBps":-4703,"at":"2026-11-11T07:19:44.914Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T07:19:48.967Z"},{"subject":"NVDA:bought:0x9d1edbec","direction":"fills-inside","right":false,"moveBps":10000,"at":"2026-11-11T01:13:55.571Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T01:13:56.300Z"},{"subject":"COST:sold:0x9d1edbec","direction":"fills-inside","right":true,"moveBps":-2896,"at":"2026-11-11T01:13:55.571Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T01:13:56.300Z"},{"subject":"NVDA:bought:0xa3289abe","direction":"fills-inside","right":true,"moveBps":-6467,"at":"2026-11-09T13:55:20.865Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T13:55:24.581Z"},{"subject":"SGOV:sold:0xa3289abe","direction":"fills-inside","right":true,"moveBps":-6467,"at":"2026-11-09T13:55:20.865Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T13:55:24.581Z"}]},"sol-paper":{"desk":"sol-paper","lifetime":{"right":288,"wrong":576,"lastAt":"2026-10-11T09:46:49.350Z","claimed":865,"firstAt":"2026-10-06T21:45:11.867Z","settled":864,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":288,"settled":864}}},"calls":401,"open":0,"settled":401,"right":134,"wrong":267,"hitRate":0.334,"avgMoveBps":-630,"learning":{"weights":{"flow":1,"churn":1,"speed":1,"top10":1,"bundle":1,"buyers":1,"funder":1,"devSold":1,"replies":1,"snipers":1,"socials":1,"devGrads":1,"tradesPerFill":1},"signs":{"flow":1,"churn":1,"speed":1,"top10":1,"bundle":1,"buyers":1,"funder":1,"devSold":1,"replies":1,"snipers":1,"socials":1,"devGrads":1,"tradesPerFill":1},"detail":{"flow":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":330,"pinned":0.97,"distinct":12,"cut":93,"lowN":11,"highN":319,"hiRate":0.332,"loRate":0.182,"gap":0.15,"noise":0.432,"why":"the gap of 15 points does not clear the 43 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"churn":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":293,"pinned":0,"distinct":96,"cut":-6,"lowN":145,"highN":148,"hiRate":0.378,"loRate":0.31,"gap":0.068,"noise":0.167,"why":"the gap of 7 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"speed":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":401,"pinned":0.554,"distinct":100,"cut":99,"lowN":199,"highN":202,"hiRate":0.371,"loRate":0.296,"gap":0.075,"noise":0.141,"why":"the gap of 7 points does not clear the 14 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"top10":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":401,"pinned":0,"distinct":72,"cut":-1,"lowN":196,"highN":205,"hiRate":0.298,"loRate":0.372,"gap":-0.075,"noise":0.141,"why":"the gap of 7 points does not clear the 14 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"bundle":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":293,"pinned":0,"distinct":93,"cut":-9,"lowN":147,"highN":146,"hiRate":0.322,"loRate":0.367,"gap":-0.045,"noise":0.167,"why":"the gap of 5 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"buyers":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":293,"pinned":0,"distinct":68,"cut":-13,"lowN":147,"highN":146,"hiRate":0.356,"loRate":0.333,"gap":0.023,"noise":0.167,"why":"the gap of 2 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"funder":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":273,"pinned":0.443,"distinct":12,"cut":-10,"lowN":135,"highN":138,"hiRate":0.333,"loRate":0.341,"gap":-0.007,"noise":0.172,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"devSold":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":391,"pinned":0,"distinct":11,"cut":24,"lowN":13,"highN":378,"hiRate":0.336,"loRate":0.308,"gap":0.028,"noise":0.399,"why":"the gap of 3 points does not clear the 40 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"replies":{"measurable":false,"constant":true,"n":401,"pinned":1,"distinct":1,"why":"it read the same value in all 401 cases, pinned at the clamp, so it is a constant rather than a feature"},"snipers":{"measurable":false,"constant":true,"n":293,"pinned":0,"distinct":1,"why":"it read the same value in all 293 cases, so it is a constant rather than a feature"},"socials":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":401,"pinned":0,"distinct":6,"cut":5,"lowN":73,"highN":328,"hiRate":0.351,"loRate":0.26,"gap":0.09,"noise":0.183,"why":"the gap of 9 points does not clear the 18 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"devGrads":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":400,"pinned":0.025,"distinct":4,"cut":0,"lowN":362,"highN":38,"hiRate":0.263,"loRate":0.343,"gap":-0.079,"noise":0.241,"why":"the gap of 8 points does not clear the 24 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"tradesPerFill":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":293,"pinned":0.003,"distinct":82,"cut":34,"lowN":145,"highN":148,"hiRate":0.358,"loRate":0.331,"gap":0.027,"noise":0.167,"why":"the gap of 3 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":401,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":2,"note":"401 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":["bundle","buyers","churn","devGrads","devSold","flow","funder","socials","speed","top10","tradesPerFill"]},"recent":[{"subject":"HnkdARt6","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":848,"at":"2026-10-11T09:42:24.603Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T09:46:49.350Z"},{"subject":"HbD74coY","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-437,"at":"2026-10-11T09:10:54.511Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T09:10:57.602Z"},{"subject":"D699iT24","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":808,"at":"2026-10-11T08:51:45.696Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T08:51:49.044Z"},{"subject":"3HvBsaDr","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1355,"at":"2026-10-11T08:39:00.840Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T08:40:25.880Z"},{"subject":"7dVhk8j3","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-3109,"at":"2026-10-11T08:29:08.305Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T08:29:26.662Z"},{"subject":"6JBQwzjv","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-2078,"at":"2026-10-11T08:26:32.701Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T08:26:56.755Z"},{"subject":"9jxjbFQZ","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-1752,"at":"2026-10-11T08:20:49.084Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T08:20:50.497Z"},{"subject":"9YUZHBXu","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":-279,"at":"2026-10-11T07:50:22.021Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T07:50:43.066Z"}]},"sol-watch":{"desk":"sol-watch","lifetime":{"right":3750,"wrong":30883,"lastAt":"2026-10-11T09:49:35.310Z","claimed":34735,"firstAt":"2026-10-06T21:41:59.520Z","settled":34633,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":3750,"settled":34633}}},"calls":4112,"open":111,"settled":4001,"right":383,"wrong":3618,"hitRate":0.096,"avgMoveBps":null,"learning":{"weights":{"flow":1,"churn":1,"speed":1,"top10":1,"bundle":1,"buyers":1.062,"funder":1,"devSold":1,"replies":1,"snipers":1,"socials":1,"devGrads":1,"tradesPerFill":1},"signs":{"flow":1,"churn":1,"speed":1,"top10":1,"bundle":1,"buyers":1,"funder":1,"devSold":1,"replies":1,"snipers":1,"socials":1,"devGrads":1,"tradesPerFill":1},"detail":{"flow":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":1292,"pinned":0.971,"distinct":33,"cut":94,"lowN":40,"highN":1252,"hiRate":0.1,"loRate":0,"gap":0.1,"noise":0.142,"why":"the gap of 10 points does not clear the 14 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"churn":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":1269,"pinned":0.003,"distinct":154,"cut":-4,"lowN":632,"highN":637,"hiRate":0.116,"loRate":0.078,"gap":0.039,"noise":0.05,"why":"the gap of 4 points does not clear the 5 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"speed":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":4001,"pinned":0.686,"distinct":186,"cut":99,"lowN":1320,"highN":2681,"hiRate":0.095,"loRate":0.098,"gap":-0.003,"noise":0.03,"why":"the gap of 0 points does not clear the 3 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"top10":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":1544,"pinned":0.008,"distinct":140,"cut":-4,"lowN":780,"highN":764,"hiRate":0.097,"loRate":0.113,"gap":-0.016,"noise":0.047,"why":"the gap of 2 points does not clear the 5 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"bundle":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":1269,"pinned":0.307,"distinct":131,"cut":-67,"lowN":637,"highN":632,"hiRate":0.087,"loRate":0.107,"gap":-0.02,"noise":0.05,"why":"the gap of 2 points does not clear the 5 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"buyers":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":1269,"pinned":0.043,"distinct":110,"cut":-23,"lowN":625,"highN":644,"hiRate":0.127,"loRate":0.066,"gap":0.062,"noise":0.05,"why":"right 13% of the time when it reads above -23 against 7% when it reads at or below"},"funder":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":1109,"pinned":0.45,"distinct":9,"cut":-50,"lowN":545,"highN":564,"hiRate":0.147,"loRate":0.095,"gap":0.052,"noise":0.059,"why":"the gap of 5 points does not clear the 6 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"devSold":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":1539,"pinned":0.663,"distinct":36,"cut":-100,"lowN":1021,"highN":518,"hiRate":0.104,"loRate":0.106,"gap":-0.002,"noise":0.05,"why":"the gap of 0 points does not clear the 5 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"replies":{"measurable":false,"constant":true,"n":4001,"pinned":1,"distinct":1,"why":"it read the same value in all 4001 cases, pinned at the clamp, so it is a constant rather than a feature"},"snipers":{"measurable":false,"constant":true,"n":1269,"pinned":0,"distinct":1,"why":"it read the same value in all 1269 cases, so it is a constant rather than a feature"},"socials":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":4001,"pinned":0,"distinct":6,"cut":5,"lowN":1154,"highN":2847,"hiRate":0.098,"loRate":0.091,"gap":0.007,"noise":0.031,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 3 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"devGrads":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":2912,"pinned":0.182,"distinct":4,"cut":0,"lowN":1834,"highN":1078,"hiRate":0.084,"loRate":0.114,"gap":-0.03,"noise":0.035,"why":"the gap of 3 points does not clear the 3 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"tradesPerFill":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":1269,"pinned":0.113,"distinct":113,"cut":44,"lowN":628,"highN":641,"hiRate":0.09,"loRate":0.104,"gap":-0.013,"noise":0.05,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 5 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":4001,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":1,"constants":2,"note":"weighted by 4001 settled calls; 1 of 13 features tell the winners from the losers by more than luck would, and none carries more than 1.5.","retired":["bundle","churn","devGrads","devSold","flow","funder","socials","speed","top10","tradesPerFill"]},"recent":[{"subject":"Cr5t5n5U:b30","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-11T09:46:48.683Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T09:48:03.751Z"},{"subject":"CTwzqmA7:b30","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-11T09:45:18.460Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T09:46:03.467Z"},{"subject":"Ac7xnU7G:b30","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-11T09:44:33.438Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T09:47:18.785Z"},{"subject":"3vnbjJa4:b30","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-11T09:43:03.430Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T09:49:35.310Z"},{"subject":"4SBupAiz:b30","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-11T09:41:34.951Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T09:42:24.634Z"},{"subject":"33A2pE6y:b60","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-11T09:41:34.950Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T09:42:48.493Z"},{"subject":"4SBupAiz:b45","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-11T09:41:06.635Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T09:42:24.634Z"},{"subject":"33A2pE6y:b75","direction":"long","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-10-11T09:41:06.634Z","settledAt":"2026-10-11T09:42:48.493Z"}]},"bondmarket":{"desk":"bondmarket","lifetime":{"right":1977,"wrong":301,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T17:48:30.265Z","claimed":2311,"firstAt":"2026-09-15T04:42:10.324Z","settled":2278,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":1977,"settled":2278}}},"calls":435,"open":33,"settled":402,"right":370,"wrong":32,"hitRate":0.92,"avgMoveBps":null,"learning":{"weights":{"level":1.09,"shrink":1,"samples":1,"overtone":1,"progress":1},"signs":{"level":1,"shrink":1,"samples":1,"overtone":1,"progress":1},"detail":{"level":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":402,"pinned":0,"distinct":151,"cut":0.0143,"lowN":200,"highN":202,"hiRate":0.965,"loRate":0.875,"gap":0.09,"noise":0.081,"why":"right 97% of the time when it reads above 0.0143 against 88% when it reads at or below"},"shrink":{"measurable":false,"constant":true,"n":402,"pinned":0,"distinct":1,"why":"it read the same value in all 402 cases, so it is a constant rather than a feature"},"samples":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":402,"pinned":1,"distinct":138,"cut":908,"lowN":204,"highN":198,"hiRate":0.96,"loRate":0.882,"gap":0.077,"noise":0.081,"why":"the gap of 8 points does not clear the 8 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"overtone":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":402,"pinned":0,"distinct":17,"cut":0.496,"lowN":19,"highN":383,"hiRate":0.916,"loRate":1,"gap":-0.084,"noise":0.191,"why":"the gap of 8 points does not clear the 19 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"progress":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":402,"pinned":0,"distinct":351,"cut":-0.1807,"lowN":201,"highN":201,"hiRate":0.905,"loRate":0.935,"gap":-0.03,"noise":0.081,"why":"the gap of 3 points does not clear the 8 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":402,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":1,"constants":1,"note":"weighted by 402 settled calls; 1 of 5 features tell the winners from the losers by more than luck would, and none carries more than 1.5.","retired":["overtone","progress","samples"]},"recent":[{"subject":"0x839d6dea3de497ee5a8338410cb2865afa51141e","direction":"no","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T00:13:43.848Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T09:39:45.123Z"},{"subject":"0xedc3bf57676d3ab56cf2a12a932169ff46ddc366","direction":"no","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T17:41:59.488Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:48:30.265Z"},{"subject":"0xb0b5bb465b3dcd5757e7bd30bdc85c3415bf4e42","direction":"no","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T17:41:59.488Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:48:30.265Z"},{"subject":"0x5acb76ff3adb392fbdb4ec120d1494757aede484","direction":"no","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T16:11:56.832Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T16:18:30.310Z"},{"subject":"0x29777aef8bfc236ff73f95adf934fead689617b0","direction":"no","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T16:11:56.832Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T16:18:30.310Z"},{"subject":"0x64e9c90b4629f63c2afa06f87efc10fa91254885","direction":"no","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T15:41:56.465Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T15:48:29.613Z"},{"subject":"0x8e04549484d0612be8373a0263b11928a5f7681f","direction":"no","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T15:41:56.465Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T16:11:34.723Z"},{"subject":"0xd26fc4d8428123b51e3a09799fa62cd8d06f93ce","direction":"no","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T15:12:13.326Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T15:18:39.520Z"}]},"index-legs":{"desk":"index-legs","lifetime":{"right":31,"wrong":29,"lastAt":"2026-11-10T16:41:49.317Z","claimed":60,"firstAt":"2026-10-08T17:27:46.678Z","settled":60,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":31,"settled":60}}},"calls":60,"open":0,"settled":60,"right":31,"wrong":29,"hitRate":0.517,"avgMoveBps":-471,"learning":{"weights":{"size":1,"depth":1,"appliedScale":1},"signs":{"size":1,"depth":1,"appliedScale":1},"detail":{"size":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":60,"pinned":0,"distinct":18,"cut":13,"lowN":30,"highN":30,"hiRate":0.6,"loRate":0.433,"gap":0.167,"noise":0.387,"why":"the gap of 17 points does not clear the 39 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"depth":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":60,"pinned":0.05,"distinct":38,"cut":50,"lowN":30,"highN":30,"hiRate":0.4,"loRate":0.633,"gap":-0.233,"noise":0.387,"why":"the gap of 23 points does not clear the 39 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"appliedScale":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":60,"pinned":0,"distinct":9,"cut":13,"lowN":32,"highN":28,"hiRate":0.321,"loRate":0.688,"gap":-0.366,"noise":0.388,"why":"the gap of 37 points does not clear the 39 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":60,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"60 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":["appliedScale","depth","size"]},"recent":[{"subject":"MSTR:bought:0x9ea37cab","direction":"fills-inside","right":true,"moveBps":-1630,"at":"2026-11-10T16:41:46.596Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T16:41:49.317Z"},{"subject":"SPY:sold:0x9ea37cab","direction":"fills-inside","right":true,"moveBps":-1630,"at":"2026-11-10T16:41:46.596Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T16:41:49.317Z"},{"subject":"CRCL:bought:0x17b0a8a0","direction":"fills-inside","right":true,"moveBps":-5735,"at":"2026-11-10T15:41:51.848Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T15:41:53.049Z"},{"subject":"META:sold:0x17b0a8a0","direction":"fills-inside","right":true,"moveBps":-2810,"at":"2026-11-10T15:41:51.848Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T15:41:53.049Z"},{"subject":"NVDA:bought:0x18d1c6cc","direction":"fills-inside","right":true,"moveBps":-6094,"at":"2026-11-09T16:25:19.603Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T16:25:23.524Z"},{"subject":"TSLA:sold:0x18d1c6cc","direction":"fills-inside","right":true,"moveBps":-4681,"at":"2026-11-09T16:25:19.603Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T16:25:23.524Z"},{"subject":"MSTR:bought:0x890bee4b","direction":"fills-inside","right":true,"moveBps":-3372,"at":"2026-11-09T05:13:24.624Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T05:13:24.935Z"},{"subject":"TSLA:sold:0x890bee4b","direction":"fills-inside","right":false,"moveBps":4430,"at":"2026-11-09T05:13:24.624Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T05:13:24.935Z"}]},"oraclemarket":{"desk":"oraclemarket","lifetime":{"right":11992,"wrong":10921,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T17:03:21.658Z","claimed":30195,"firstAt":"2026-10-03T19:04:09.592Z","settled":22913,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":11992,"settled":22913}}},"calls":1200,"open":770,"settled":430,"right":228,"wrong":202,"hitRate":0.53,"avgMoveBps":42,"learning":{"weights":{"width":1,"horizon":1,"session":0.804},"signs":{"width":1,"horizon":1,"session":-1},"detail":{"width":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":430,"pinned":0,"distinct":52,"cut":37,"lowN":218,"highN":212,"hiRate":0.59,"loRate":0.472,"gap":0.117,"noise":0.144,"why":"the gap of 12 points does not clear the 14 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"horizon":{"measurable":false,"constant":true,"n":430,"pinned":1,"distinct":1,"why":"it read the same value in all 430 cases, pinned at the clamp, so it is a constant rather than a feature"},"session":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":430,"pinned":1,"distinct":2,"cut":-100,"lowN":283,"highN":147,"hiRate":0.401,"loRate":0.597,"gap":-0.196,"noise":0.152,"why":"right 40% of the time when it reads above -100 against 60% when it reads at or below"}},"learning":true,"samples":430,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":1,"constants":1,"note":"weighted by 430 settled calls; 1 of 3 features tell the winners from the losers by more than luck would, and none carries more than 1.5.","retired":["horizon","session"]},"recent":[{"subject":"uso:hour:2026-11-11T16","direction":"inside","right":true,"moveBps":62,"at":"2026-11-11T16:03:21.074Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:03:21.658Z"},{"subject":"usar:hour:2026-11-11T16","direction":"inside","right":false,"moveBps":357,"at":"2026-11-11T16:03:21.074Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:03:21.658Z"},{"subject":"tsm:hour:2026-11-11T16","direction":"inside","right":false,"moveBps":155,"at":"2026-11-11T16:03:21.074Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:03:21.658Z"},{"subject":"tsla (24/7):hour:2026-11-11T16","direction":"inside","right":false,"moveBps":63,"at":"2026-11-11T16:03:21.074Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:03:21.658Z"},{"subject":"tsla:hour:2026-11-11T16","direction":"inside","right":false,"moveBps":66,"at":"2026-11-11T16:03:21.074Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:03:21.658Z"},{"subject":"spy:hour:2026-11-11T16","direction":"inside","right":true,"moveBps":0,"at":"2026-11-11T16:03:21.074Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:03:21.658Z"},{"subject":"spcx:hour:2026-11-11T16","direction":"inside","right":false,"moveBps":231,"at":"2026-11-11T16:03:21.074Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:03:21.658Z"},{"subject":"sndk (24/7):hour:2026-11-11T16","direction":"inside","right":false,"moveBps":425,"at":"2026-11-11T16:03:21.074Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:03:21.658Z"}]},"predict-read":{"desk":"predict-read","lifetime":{"right":4677,"wrong":6058,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T06:10:30.728Z","claimed":13709,"firstAt":"2026-09-11T00:02:35.176Z","settled":10735,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":4677,"settled":10735}}},"calls":1728,"open":228,"settled":1500,"right":708,"wrong":792,"hitRate":0.472,"avgMoveBps":null,"learning":{"weights":{"edge":1,"crowdN":1,"volGap":1,"analyst":1,"crossGap":1,"modelGap":0.724,"crowdLean":1,"hoursLeft":1,"volFromTape":1},"signs":{"edge":1,"crowdN":1,"volGap":1,"analyst":1,"crossGap":1,"modelGap":-1,"crowdLean":1,"hoursLeft":1,"volFromTape":1},"detail":{"edge":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":1500,"pinned":0.396,"distinct":152,"cut":60,"lowN":783,"highN":717,"hiRate":0.452,"loRate":0.49,"gap":-0.039,"noise":0.077,"why":"the gap of 4 points does not clear the 8 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"crowdN":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":293,"pinned":0,"distinct":8,"cut":9,"lowN":70,"highN":223,"hiRate":0.453,"loRate":0.557,"gap":-0.104,"noise":0.205,"why":"the gap of 10 points does not clear the 21 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"volGap":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":409,"pinned":1,"distinct":196,"cut":-1445,"lowN":202,"highN":207,"hiRate":0.353,"loRate":0.48,"gap":-0.128,"noise":0.146,"why":"the gap of 13 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"analyst":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":1497,"pinned":0.464,"distinct":56,"cut":50,"lowN":817,"highN":680,"hiRate":0.481,"loRate":0.465,"gap":0.016,"noise":0.078,"why":"the gap of 2 points does not clear the 8 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"crossGap":{"measurable":false,"n":0,"pinned":null,"why":"0 settled cases carry it; 30 are needed before a gap means anything"},"modelGap":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":409,"pinned":0.927,"distinct":375,"cut":691,"lowN":204,"highN":205,"hiRate":0.278,"loRate":0.554,"gap":-0.276,"noise":0.146,"why":"right 28% of the time when it reads above 691 against 55% when it reads at or below"},"crowdLean":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":293,"pinned":0,"distinct":19,"cut":0,"lowN":192,"highN":101,"hiRate":0.446,"loRate":0.495,"gap":-0.049,"noise":0.184,"why":"the gap of 5 points does not clear the 18 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"hoursLeft":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":1500,"pinned":0.049,"distinct":862,"cut":0.769995,"lowN":750,"highN":750,"hiRate":0.44,"loRate":0.504,"gap":-0.064,"noise":0.077,"why":"the gap of 6 points does not clear the 8 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"volFromTape":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":409,"pinned":0,"distinct":2,"cut":0,"lowN":17,"highN":392,"hiRate":0.418,"loRate":0.353,"gap":0.065,"noise":0.366,"why":"the gap of 7 points does not clear the 37 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":1500,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":1,"constants":0,"note":"weighted by 1500 settled calls; 1 of 9 features tell the winners from the losers by more than luck would, and none carries more than 1.5.","retired":["analyst","crowdLean","crowdN","edge","hoursLeft","volFromTape","volGap"]},"recent":[{"subject":"kalshi:KXBTCD-26NOV1101-T73699.99","direction":"no","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T05:22:34.188Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T06:10:30.728Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXGOLDH-26NOV1100-T4055.99","direction":"no","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T04:12:29.253Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T05:12:30.756Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXGOLDH-26NOV1023-T4045.99","direction":"yes","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T03:34:34.789Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T04:12:24.651Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXGOLDH-26NOV1022-T4041.99","direction":"no","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T02:44:08.599Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T03:04:31.245Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXGOLDH-26NOV1022-T4035.99","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T02:24:07.678Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T03:04:31.096Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXBTCD-26NOV1016-T73599.99","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T20:40:10.974Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T22:23:20.908Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXINXU-26NOV10H1600-T7509.9999","direction":"yes","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T20:10:06.626Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T00:04:08.666Z"},{"subject":"kalshi:KXBTCD-26NOV1015-T73199.99","direction":"no","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T19:22:23.613Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T22:00:08.332Z"}]},"trader-watch":{"desk":"trader-watch","lifetime":{"right":4416,"wrong":63806,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T17:47:15.730Z","claimed":68340,"firstAt":"2026-09-09T18:16:07.928Z","settled":68222,"byEncoding":{"1":{"right":2,"settled":7},"2":{"right":4414,"settled":68215}}},"calls":4135,"open":135,"settled":4000,"right":72,"wrong":3928,"hitRate":0.018,"avgMoveBps":null,"learning":{"weights":{"netFlow":1.015,"headroom":0.969,"buyerLead":1.029,"earlyRaise":1.021,"launcherHold":1,"sellPressure":0.984},"signs":{"netFlow":1,"headroom":-1,"buyerLead":1,"earlyRaise":1,"launcherHold":1,"sellPressure":-1},"detail":{"netFlow":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":4000,"pinned":0,"distinct":127,"cut":45,"lowN":2045,"highN":1955,"hiRate":0.026,"loRate":0.011,"gap":0.015,"noise":0.013,"why":"right 3% of the time when it reads above 45 against 1% when it reads at or below"},"headroom":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":4000,"pinned":0,"distinct":122,"cut":42,"lowN":2008,"highN":1992,"hiRate":0.003,"loRate":0.033,"gap":-0.031,"noise":0.013,"why":"right 0% of the time when it reads above 42 against 3% when it reads at or below"},"buyerLead":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":4000,"pinned":0,"distinct":87,"cut":-16,"lowN":2003,"highN":1997,"hiRate":0.033,"loRate":0.003,"gap":0.029,"noise":0.013,"why":"right 3% of the time when it reads above -16 against 0% when it reads at or below"},"earlyRaise":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":4000,"pinned":0,"distinct":143,"cut":-6,"lowN":1972,"highN":2028,"hiRate":0.028,"loRate":0.008,"gap":0.021,"noise":0.013,"why":"right 3% of the time when it reads above -6 against 1% when it reads at or below"},"launcherHold":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":4000,"pinned":0.081,"distinct":137,"cut":33,"lowN":1974,"highN":2026,"hiRate":0.02,"loRate":0.016,"gap":0.005,"noise":0.013,"why":"the gap of 0 points does not clear the 1 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"sellPressure":{"measurable":true,"real":true,"n":3997,"pinned":0.006,"distinct":100,"cut":31,"lowN":2020,"highN":1977,"hiRate":0.01,"loRate":0.026,"gap":-0.016,"noise":0.013,"why":"right 1% of the time when it reads above 31 against 3% when it reads at or below"}},"learning":true,"samples":4000,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":5,"constants":0,"note":"weighted by 4000 settled calls; 5 of 6 features tell the winners from the losers by more than luck would, and none carries more than 1.5.","retired":["launcherHold"]},"recent":[{"subject":"0x47c9a012:p12","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T17:44:53.363Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:47:15.730Z"},{"subject":"0xcde7c6db:p30","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T17:31:03.663Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:33:39.686Z"},{"subject":"0xbd863910:p75","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T17:03:36.783Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:05:00.953Z"},{"subject":"0xbd863910:p60","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T17:03:30.658Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:05:00.953Z"},{"subject":"0xbd863910:p45","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T17:03:06.612Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:05:00.953Z"},{"subject":"0xbd863910:p30","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T17:02:18.631Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:05:06.950Z"},{"subject":"0xf76593c1:p30","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T17:02:00.668Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:32:03.670Z"},{"subject":"0xbd863910:p12","direction":"long","right":false,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-11T16:59:12.541Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T17:05:22.914Z"}]},"world-bounty":{"desk":"world-bounty","lifetime":{"right":38,"wrong":0,"lastAt":"2026-11-11T00:03:21.547Z","claimed":39,"firstAt":"2026-10-05T00:07:08.887Z","settled":38,"byEncoding":{"2":{"right":38,"settled":38}}},"calls":39,"open":1,"settled":38,"right":38,"wrong":0,"hitRate":1,"avgMoveBps":null,"learning":{"weights":{"bounty":1,"weekday":1},"signs":{"bounty":1,"weekday":1},"detail":{"bounty":{"measurable":false,"constant":true,"n":38,"pinned":0,"distinct":1,"why":"it read the same value in all 38 cases, so it is a constant rather than a feature"},"weekday":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":38,"pinned":1,"distinct":2,"cut":-100,"lowN":11,"highN":27,"hiRate":1,"loRate":1,"gap":0,"noise":0,"why":"the gap of 0 points does not clear the 0 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":38,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":1,"note":"38 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet.","retired":[]},"recent":[{"subject":"2026-11-10","direction":"buys-work","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-10T00:05:14.143Z","settledAt":"2026-11-11T00:03:21.547Z"},{"subject":"2026-11-09","direction":"buys-work","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-09T00:03:00.653Z","settledAt":"2026-11-10T00:05:14.143Z"},{"subject":"2026-11-08","direction":"buys-work","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-08T00:07:55.229Z","settledAt":"2026-11-09T00:03:00.653Z"},{"subject":"2026-11-07","direction":"buys-work","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-07T00:09:08.089Z","settledAt":"2026-11-08T00:07:55.229Z"},{"subject":"2026-11-06","direction":"buys-work","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-06T00:09:44.815Z","settledAt":"2026-11-07T00:09:08.089Z"},{"subject":"2026-11-05","direction":"buys-work","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-05T00:05:33.103Z","settledAt":"2026-11-06T00:09:44.815Z"},{"subject":"2026-11-04","direction":"buys-work","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-04T00:07:58.293Z","settledAt":"2026-11-05T00:05:33.103Z"},{"subject":"2026-11-03","direction":"buys-work","right":true,"moveBps":null,"at":"2026-11-03T00:09:45.520Z","settledAt":"2026-11-04T00:07:58.293Z"}]}},"perpSignals":{"calls":400,"scored":390,"pending":10,"nextMatureAt":1794436516364,"firstCallAt":"2026-09-17T03:25:56.662Z","right":186,"wrong":204,"hitRate":0.477,"avgMoveBps":-9,"paper":{"trades":322,"wins":157,"losses":165,"stopped":153,"targeted":120,"timed":49,"pnlUsd":20.13,"avgPnlBps":6,"winRate":0.488,"usdPerTrade":100,"breakevenRate":0.375},"gate":{"clears":true,"why":"winning 48.8% of 322 paper trades, $20.13 up, past the 42.9% luck bar; live sizing still needs the operator's arm"},"learning":{"weights":{"trend":1,"meanRevert":1,"volatility":1,"flow":1,"basis":1,"structure":1,"bands":1,"vwap":1,"macd":1},"signs":{"trend":1,"meanRevert":1,"volatility":1,"flow":1,"basis":1,"structure":1,"bands":1,"vwap":1,"macd":1},"detail":{"flow":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":390,"pinned":0.003,"distinct":18,"cut":20,"lowN":224,"highN":166,"hiRate":0.47,"loRate":0.482,"gap":-0.012,"noise":0.153,"why":"the gap of 1 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"basis":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":238,"pinned":0.29,"distinct":170,"cut":31.966904851445555,"lowN":119,"highN":119,"hiRate":0.588,"loRate":0.437,"gap":0.151,"noise":0.194,"why":"the gap of 15 points does not clear the 19 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"trend":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":390,"pinned":0.149,"distinct":252,"cut":26.75,"lowN":195,"highN":195,"hiRate":0.441,"loRate":0.513,"gap":-0.072,"noise":0.152,"why":"the gap of 7 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"meanRevert":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":390,"pinned":0,"distinct":390,"cut":-4.58333333333523,"lowN":195,"highN":195,"hiRate":0.497,"loRate":0.456,"gap":0.041,"noise":0.152,"why":"the gap of 4 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"volatility":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":390,"pinned":0.362,"distinct":241,"cut":64.9740932642487,"lowN":195,"highN":195,"hiRate":0.431,"loRate":0.523,"gap":-0.092,"noise":0.152,"why":"the gap of 9 points does not clear the 15 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"macd":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":322,"pinned":0,"distinct":118,"cut":1.3333333333333333,"lowN":159,"highN":163,"hiRate":0.497,"loRate":0.478,"gap":0.019,"noise":0.167,"why":"the gap of 2 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"vwap":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":322,"pinned":0,"distinct":222,"cut":13.381434887906488,"lowN":161,"highN":161,"hiRate":0.422,"loRate":0.553,"gap":-0.13,"noise":0.167,"why":"the gap of 13 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"bands":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":322,"pinned":0,"distinct":129,"cut":8.559999999999999,"lowN":161,"highN":161,"hiRate":0.435,"loRate":0.54,"gap":-0.106,"noise":0.167,"why":"the gap of 11 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"},"structure":{"measurable":true,"real":false,"n":322,"pinned":0,"distinct":13,"cut":25,"lowN":160,"highN":162,"hiRate":0.463,"loRate":0.512,"gap":-0.05,"noise":0.167,"why":"the gap of 5 points does not clear the 17 points two groups this size show from luck alone"}},"learning":true,"samples":390,"legacy":0,"encoding":2,"earning":0,"constants":0,"note":"390 settled calls, and NOT ONE feature separates the winners from the losers by more than luck would, so every weight is exactly one and this desk has demonstrated no edge yet."},"recent":[{"day":"2026-11-11","symbol":"QQQ","side":"short","conviction":22,"priceAtCall":688.36,"priceAtScore":null,"moveBps":null,"right":null,"scored":false,"plan":{"stop":692.28687,"target":681.81522},"paper":null},{"day":"2026-11-11","symbol":"MSFT","side":"short","conviction":28,"priceAtCall":534.74,"priceAtScore":null,"moveBps":null,"right":null,"scored":false,"plan":{"stop":538.01311,"target":529.28482},"paper":null},{"day":"2026-11-11","symbol":"CRCL","side":"short","conviction":30,"priceAtCall":65.588,"priceAtScore":null,"moveBps":null,"right":null,"scored":false,"plan":{"stop":66.730352,"target":63.684079},"paper":null},{"day":"2026-11-11","symbol":"NVDA","side":"short","conviction":27,"priceAtCall":173.03,"priceAtScore":null,"moveBps":null,"right":null,"scored":false,"plan":{"stop":175.74672,"target":168.50214},"paper":null},{"day":"2026-11-11","symbol":"SPY","side":"short","conviction":28,"priceAtCall":754.98,"priceAtScore":null,"moveBps":null,"right":null,"scored":false,"plan":{"stop":757.75025,"target":750.36291},"paper":null},{"day":"2026-11-11","symbol":"SNDK","side":"short","conviction":34,"priceAtCall":905.52,"priceAtScore":null,"moveBps":null,"right":null,"scored":false,"plan":{"stop":929.87515,"target":864.92808},"paper":null},{"day":"2026-11-11","symbol":"OPENAI","side":"short","conviction":26,"priceAtCall":1329.74,"priceAtScore":null,"moveBps":null,"right":null,"scored":false,"plan":{"stop":1358.448,"target":1281.8933},"paper":null},{"day":"2026-11-11","symbol":"ETH","side":"short","conviction":25,"priceAtCall":2050.3,"priceAtScore":null,"moveBps":null,"right":null,"scored":false,"plan":{"stop":2081.3602,"target":1998.5329},"paper":null},{"day":"2026-11-10","symbol":"SOL","side":"short","conviction":23,"priceAtCall":83.05,"priceAtScore":null,"moveBps":null,"right":null,"scored":false,"plan":{"stop":84.450944,"target":80.715093},"paper":null},{"day":"2026-11-10","symbol":"ETH","side":"short","conviction":26,"priceAtCall":2047.87,"priceAtScore":null,"moveBps":null,"right":null,"scored":false,"plan":{"stop":2082.0128,"target":1990.9654},"paper":null},{"day":"2026-11-10","symbol":"ZEC","side":"short","conviction":39,"priceAtCall":1004.63,"priceAtScore":1015.88,"moveBps":-112,"right":false,"scored":true,"plan":{"stop":1053.1282,"target":923.79964},"paper":{"exit":"stop","pnlBps":-483,"pnlUsd":-4.83}},{"day":"2026-11-10","symbol":"META","side":"long","conviction":28,"priceAtCall":638.72,"priceAtScore":649.55,"moveBps":170,"right":true,"scored":true,"plan":{"stop":633.40954,"target":647.57077},"paper":{"exit":"target","pnlBps":139,"pnlUsd":1.39}}]},"review":{"flags":{"earn":[],"hinc":["slipBps"],"lean":[],"risk":[],"tail":[],"index":["slipBps"],"pairs":[],"perps":[],"alerts":["grace"],"borrow":[],"launch":[],"trader":[],"mmvault":[],"predict":[],"activity":[],"earnings":["model"],"flywheel":[],"overtone":[],"registry":[],"timeline":["plate"],"allocator":["rsi"],"chartdesk":[],"fundboard":["coverage"],"hinc-legs":[],"sol-paper":[],"sol-watch":["buyers"],"bondmarket":["level","samples"],"index-legs":[],"oraclemarket":["width"],"predict-read":["modelGap"],"trader-watch":["buyerLead","earlyRaise","headroom","netFlow"],"world-bounty":[]},"at":"2026-11-11T15:18:19.343Z","settledAtLastReview":153048,"newSinceLast":367,"desks":{"earn":{"settled":1,"right":1,"weights":{"othersUsd":1,"oracleBasisPct":1,"utilizationPct":1},"learning":false},"hinc":{"settled":41,"right":15,"weights":{"moveUsd":1,"slipBps":0.5,"driftBps":1},"learning":true},"lean":{"settled":154,"right":111,"weights":{"the kind of statement":1,"which attempt it was":1,"whether it carried Lean":1,"the length of the claim":1},"learning":true},"risk":{"settled":21,"right":15,"weights":{"age":1,"the depth of the pool":1,"contract":1,"the room the build allowed under its quote":1,"volatility":1,"consistency":1,"concentration":1},"learning":true},"tail":{"settled":222,"right":191,"weights":{"how calm the tape was":1,"how wide the day's figure sat against a typical day":1,"the horizon":1},"learning":true},"index":{"settled":52,"right":26,"weights":{"moveUsd":1,"slipBps":0.5,"driftBps":1},"learning":true},"pairs":{"settled":81,"right":46,"weights":{"z":1,"rho":1,"beta":1,"halfLife":1},"learning":true},"perps":{"settled":401,"right":188,"weights":{"flow":1,"basis":1,"trend":1,"mean reversion":1,"volatility":1,"macd":1,"vwap":1,"bands":1,"structure":1,"the chart read's vote":1,"the chart's stance":1,"the ranked agents' lean on the registry":1},"learning":true},"alerts":{"settled":401,"right":39,"weights":{"how long the alert waits":0.734,"the alert's severity":1},"learning":true},"borrow":{"settled":1,"right":0,"weights":{"the venue's lending limit":1,"how much of the cushion the loan used":1},"learning":false},"launch":{"settled":2,"right":0,"weights":{"the pair":1,"the venue":1,"the dev buy":1,"the launch rules":1,"the hour of the launch":1,"the raise target":1,"where the fees go":1},"learning":false},"trader":{"settled":28,"right":10,"weights":{"the gap between the desk's number and the price":1,"the bucket's bond odds":1,"how far along the curve the push is":1,"the size of the fleet":1},"learning":true},"mmvault":{"settled":7,"right":6,"weights":{"volBps":1,"bandBps":1,"widthMult":1},"learning":false},"predict":{"settled":23,"right":14,"weights":{"expected value":1,"the gap between the desk's number and the price":1,"the hours left to close":1,"the room left in the price":1},"learning":true},"activity":{"settled":30,"right":25,"weights":{},"learning":true},"earnings":{"settled":262,"right":215,"weights":{"model":1.148,"the analyst's lean":1},"learning":true},"flywheel":{"settled":401,"right":109,"weights":{"rsi":1,"streak":1,"buyScore":1,"aggression":1,"momentumBps":1,"volatilityBps":1,"volumeFactorPct":1},"learning":true},"overtone":{"settled":402,"right":31,"weights":{"rising":1,"topTen":1,"filling":1,"holders":1,"socials":1,"accounts":1,"progress":1,"topWallet":1},"learning":true},"registry":{"settled":277,"right":156,"weights":{},"learning":true},"timeline":{"settled":260,"right":124,"weights":{"the hour it went out":1,"whether it was the mind's turn or a product post":1,"whether a plate rode with it":1.255,"its length":1},"learning":true},"allocator":{"settled":400,"right":200,"weights":{"z":1,"rsi":1.195,"pctB":1,"streak":1,"drawdownBps":1,"macdHistBps":1,"volatilityBps":1},"learning":true},"chartdesk":{"settled":83,"right":56,"weights":{"band":1,"vwap":1,"trend":1,"strength":1,"structure":1,"divergence":1,"whether the next window up agreed with the read":1},"learning":true},"fundboard":{"settled":429,"right":355,"weights":{"the price against the NAV on the NAV's own day":1,"how large the covered move was, whichever way it pointed":1,"how much of the fund the covered move covers":1.226},"learning":true},"hinc-legs":{"settled":74,"right":33,"weights":{"how large the covered move was, whichever way it pointed":1,"the depth of the pool":1,"how far the record cut the size":1},"learning":true},"sol-paper":{"settled":401,"right":134,"weights":{"flow":1,"churn":1,"speed":1,"top10":1,"bundle":1,"buyers":1,"funder":1,"devSold":1,"replies":1,"snipers":1,"socials":1,"devGrads":1,"tradesPerFill":1},"learning":true},"sol-watch":{"settled":4001,"right":383,"weights":{"flow":1,"churn":1,"speed":1,"top10":1,"bundle":1,"buyers":1.062,"funder":1,"devSold":1,"replies":1,"snipers":1,"socials":1,"devGrads":1,"tradesPerFill":1},"learning":true},"bondmarket":{"settled":404,"right":371,"weights":{"level":1.094,"shrink":1,"samples":1.083,"overtone":1,"progress":1},"learning":true},"index-legs":{"settled":60,"right":31,"weights":{"how large the covered move was, whichever way it pointed":1,"the depth of the pool":1,"how far the record cut the size":1},"learning":true},"oraclemarket":{"settled":430,"right":238,"weights":{"the ladder's width":1.153,"the horizon":1,"whether the market was in session":1},"learning":true},"predict-read":{"settled":1500,"right":708,"weights":{"the gap between the desk's number and the price":1,"how many posts the crowd read had":1,"volGap":1,"the analyst's lean":1,"the gap between the two venues":1,"the gap between the desk's number and the market's":0.724,"the crowd's lean on X":1,"the hours left to close":1,"volFromTape":1},"learning":true},"trader-watch":{"settled":4008,"right":73,"weights":{"the net ETH flow":1.018,"how far along the curve the push is":0.969,"the size of the fleet":1.03,"the ETH bought in the first thirty seconds":1.021,"the launcher's share of supply":1,"the share of recent trades that were sells":1},"learning":true},"world-bounty":{"settled":38,"right":38,"weights":{"the size of the day's bounty":1,"a weekday rather than a weekend":1},"learning":true}},"lesson":"Only four things in this record actually earn their place: slip bps on the hinc desk and on the index desk, how long the alert waits on the pager, and the model number on the earnings desk, each of those sorts winners from losers across a full count of settled cases. Everything else the desks wrote down is not carrying its weight: the twelve-feature perp read separates on nothing, the flywheel's seven do nothing, the relationship desk's z, rho, beta and half life do nothing, and on the proof queue and the tail desk the headline feature was pinned at one value in every single case, so it was never a feature at all.","written":true,"decisions":{"retired":{"lean":["attempt","claimLen","hasLean"],"tail":["varPct","vol"],"pairs":["beta","halfLife","rho","z"],"perps":["bands","basis","chart","flow","macd","meanRevert","stance","structure","trend","volatility","vwap"],"earnings":["analyst"],"flywheel":["aggression","buyScore","momentumBps","rsi","streak","volatilityBps","volumeFactorPct"],"overtone":["accounts","holders","progress","socials","topTen","topWallet"],"timeline":["hour","kind","length"],"allocator":["drawdownBps","macdHistBps","pctB","streak","volatilityBps","z"],"chartdesk":["band","divergence","strength","structure","trend"],"fundboard":["gap","size"],"hinc-legs":["appliedScale","depth","size"],"sol-paper":["bundle","buyers","churn","devGrads","devSold","flow","funder","socials","speed","top10","tradesPerFill"],"sol-watch":["bundle","churn","devGrads","devSold","flow","funder","socials","speed","top10","tradesPerFill"],"bondmarket":["overtone","progress","samples"],"index-legs":["appliedScale","depth","size"],"oraclemarket":["horizon","session"],"predict-read":["analyst","crowdLean","crowdN","edge","hoursLeft","volFromTape","volGap"],"trader-watch":["launcherHold"]},"candidates":[{"desk":"hinc","feature":"slipBps","word":"slip bps","n":41,"aboveRate":0,"belowRate":0.75,"why":"right 0% of the time when it reads above 184 against 75% when it reads at or below","text":"slip bps on the hinc desk separates for real (right 0% of the time when it reads above 184 against 75% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"index","feature":"slipBps","word":"slip bps","n":52,"aboveRate":0,"belowRate":1,"why":"right 0% of the time when it reads above 142 against 100% when it reads at or below","text":"slip bps on the index desk separates for real (right 0% of the time when it reads above 142 against 100% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"alerts","feature":"grace","word":"how long the alert waits","n":401,"aboveRate":0.08,"belowRate":0.346,"why":"right 8% of the time when it reads above 18 against 35% when it reads at or below","text":"how long the alert waits on the pager separates for real (right 8% of the time when it reads above 18 against 35% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"earnings","feature":"model","word":"model","n":259,"aboveRate":0.892,"belowRate":0.744,"why":"right 89% of the time when it reads above 2560 against 74% when it reads at or below","text":"model on the earnings desk separates for real (right 89% of the time when it reads above 2560 against 74% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"timeline","feature":"plate","word":"whether a plate rode with it","n":260,"aboveRate":0.662,"belowRate":0.407,"why":"right 66% of the time when it reads above -100 against 41% when it reads at or below","text":"whether a plate rode with it on the timeline separates for real (right 66% of the time when it reads above -100 against 41% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"allocator","feature":"rsi","word":"rsi","n":400,"aboveRate":0.597,"belowRate":0.402,"why":"right 60% of the time when it reads above 49 against 40% when it reads at or below","text":"rsi on the allocator separates for real (right 60% of the time when it reads above 49 against 40% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"fundboard","feature":"coverage","word":"how much of the fund the covered move covers","n":429,"aboveRate":0.94,"belowRate":0.714,"why":"right 94% of the time when it reads above 32.09 against 71% when it reads at or below","text":"how much of the fund the covered move covers on the fund token board separates for real (right 94% of the time when it reads above 32.09 against 71% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"sol-watch","feature":"buyers","word":"buyers","n":1269,"aboveRate":0.127,"belowRate":0.066,"why":"right 13% of the time when it reads above -23 against 7% when it reads at or below","text":"buyers on the Solana desk's filter separates for real (right 13% of the time when it reads above -23 against 7% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"bondmarket","feature":"level","word":"level","n":404,"aboveRate":0.965,"belowRate":0.871,"why":"right 97% of the time when it reads above 0.0147 against 87% when it reads at or below","text":"level on the bond market separates for real (right 97% of the time when it reads above 0.0147 against 87% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"bondmarket","feature":"samples","word":"samples","n":404,"aboveRate":0.96,"belowRate":0.877,"why":"right 96% of the time when it reads above 908 against 88% when it reads at or below","text":"samples on the bond market separates for real (right 96% of the time when it reads above 908 against 88% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"oraclemarket","feature":"width","word":"the ladder's width","n":430,"aboveRate":0.633,"belowRate":0.48,"why":"right 63% of the time when it reads above 37 against 48% when it reads at or below","text":"the ladder's width on the oracle market separates for real (right 63% of the time when it reads above 37 against 48% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"trader-watch","feature":"netFlow","word":"the net ETH flow","n":4008,"aboveRate":0.027,"belowRate":0.009,"why":"right 3% of the time when it reads above 45 against 1% when it reads at or below","text":"the net ETH flow on the launch filter separates for real (right 3% of the time when it reads above 45 against 1% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"trader-watch","feature":"headroom","word":"how far along the curve the push is","n":4008,"aboveRate":0.003,"belowRate":0.034,"why":"right 0% of the time when it reads above 41 against 3% when it reads at or below","text":"how far along the curve the push is on the launch filter separates for real (right 0% of the time when it reads above 41 against 3% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"trader-watch","feature":"buyerLead","word":"the size of the fleet","n":4008,"aboveRate":0.033,"belowRate":0.003,"why":"right 3% of the time when it reads above -16 against 0% when it reads at or below","text":"the size of the fleet on the launch filter separates for real (right 3% of the time when it reads above -16 against 0% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"},{"desk":"trader-watch","feature":"earlyRaise","word":"the ETH bought in the first thirty seconds","n":4008,"aboveRate":0.028,"belowRate":0.008,"why":"right 3% of the time when it reads above -6 against 1% when it reads at or below","text":"the ETH bought in the first thirty seconds on the launch filter separates for real (right 3% of the time when it reads above -6 against 1% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"}],"streaks":{"hinc|moveUsd":{"of":"unmeasured","n":109},"hinc|slipBps":{"of":"real","n":48},"hinc|driftBps":{"of":"unmeasured","n":109},"lean|source":{"of":"unmeasured","n":143},"lean|attempt":{"of":"noise","n":99},"lean|hasLean":{"of":"noise","n":70},"lean|claimLen":{"of":"noise","n":58},"risk|age":{"of":"unmeasured","n":58},"risk|depth":{"of":"unmeasured","n":58},"risk|contract":{"of":"unmeasured","n":58},"risk|slippage":{"of":"unmeasured","n":58},"risk|volatility":{"of":"unmeasured","n":58},"risk|consistency":{"of":"unmeasured","n":58},"risk|concentration":{"of":"unmeasured","n":58},"tail|vol":{"of":"noise","n":111},"tail|varPct":{"of":"noise","n":111},"tail|horizon":{"of":"unmeasured","n":144},"index|moveUsd":{"of":"unmeasured","n":163},"index|slipBps":{"of":"real","n":83},"index|driftBps":{"of":"unmeasured","n":163},"pairs|z":{"of":"noise","n":26},"pairs|rho":{"of":"noise","n":26},"pairs|beta":{"of":"noise","n":26},"pairs|halfLife":{"of":"noise","n":10},"perps|flow":{"of":"noise","n":163},"perps|basis":{"of":"noise","n":163},"perps|trend":{"of":"noise","n":163},"perps|meanRevert":{"of":"noise","n":163},"perps|volatility":{"of":"noise","n":163},"perps|macd":{"of":"noise","n":142},"perps|vwap":{"of":"noise","n":142},"perps|bands":{"of":"noise","n":142},"perps|structure":{"of":"noise","n":142},"perps|chart":{"of":"noise","n":107},"perps|stance":{"of":"noise","n":107},"perps|registry":{"of":"unmeasured","n":148},"alerts|grace":{"of":"real","n":77},"alerts|severity":{"of":"unmeasured","n":131},"trader|edge":{"of":"unmeasured","n":163},"trader|winOdds":{"of":"unmeasured","n":163},"trader|headroom":{"of":"unmeasured","n":163},"trader|buyerLead":{"of":"unmeasured","n":163},"predict|ev":{"of":"unmeasured","n":70},"predict|edge":{"of":"unmeasured","n":70},"predict|hoursLeft":{"of":"unmeasured","n":70},"predict|priceRoom":{"of":"unmeasured","n":70},"earnings|model":{"of":"real","n":21},"earnings|analyst":{"of":"noise","n":71},"flywheel|rsi":{"of":"noise","n":71},"flywheel|streak":{"of":"noise","n":48},"flywheel|buyScore":{"of":"noise","n":152},"flywheel|aggression":{"of":"noise","n":30},"flywheel|momentumBps":{"of":"noise","n":49},"flywheel|volatilityBps":{"of":"noise","n":46},"flywheel|volumeFactorPct":{"of":"noise","n":2},"overtone|rising":{"of":"unmeasured","n":163},"overtone|topTen":{"of":"noise","n":71},"overtone|filling":{"of":"unmeasured","n":163},"overtone|holders":{"of":"noise","n":71},"overtone|socials":{"of":"noise","n":149},"overtone|accounts":{"of":"noise","n":147},"overtone|progress":{"of":"noise","n":41},"overtone|topWallet":{"of":"noise","n":71},"timeline|hour":{"of":"noise","n":136},"timeline|kind":{"of":"noise","n":136},"timeline|plate":{"of":"real","n":18},"timeline|length":{"of":"noise","n":136},"allocator|z":{"of":"noise","n":43},"allocator|rsi":{"of":"real","n":9},"allocator|pctB":{"of":"noise","n":42},"allocator|streak":{"of":"noise","n":163},"allocator|drawdownBps":{"of":"noise","n":5},"allocator|macdHistBps":{"of":"noise","n":163},"allocator|volatilityBps":{"of":"noise","n":163},"chartdesk|band":{"of":"noise","n":107},"chartdesk|vwap":{"of":"unmeasured","n":163},"chartdesk|trend":{"of":"noise","n":107},"chartdesk|strength":{"of":"noise","n":107},"chartdesk|structure":{"of":"noise","n":107},"chartdesk|divergence":{"of":"noise","n":107},"chartdesk|confirm":{"of":"unmeasured","n":145},"fundboard|gap":{"of":"noise","n":105},"fundboard|size":{"of":"noise","n":3},"fundboard|coverage":{"of":"real","n":59},"hinc-legs|size":{"of":"noise","n":28},"hinc-legs|depth":{"of":"noise","n":28},"hinc-legs|appliedScale":{"of":"noise","n":28},"sol-paper|flow":{"of":"noise","n":135},"sol-paper|churn":{"of":"noise","n":138},"sol-paper|speed":{"of":"noise","n":139},"sol-paper|top10":{"of":"noise","n":139},"sol-paper|bundle":{"of":"noise","n":138},"sol-paper|buyers":{"of":"noise","n":138},"sol-paper|funder":{"of":"noise","n":138},"sol-paper|devSold":{"of":"noise","n":129},"sol-paper|replies":{"of":"unmeasured","n":140},"sol-paper|snipers":{"of":"unmeasured","n":140},"sol-paper|socials":{"of":"noise","n":139},"sol-paper|devGrads":{"of":"noise","n":138},"sol-paper|tradesPerFill":{"of":"noise","n":136},"sol-watch|flow":{"of":"noise","n":139},"sol-watch|churn":{"of":"noise","n":126},"sol-watch|speed":{"of":"noise","n":138},"sol-watch|top10":{"of":"noise","n":140},"sol-watch|bundle":{"of":"noise","n":140},"sol-watch|buyers":{"of":"real","n":123},"sol-watch|funder":{"of":"noise","n":126},"sol-watch|devSold":{"of":"noise","n":127},"sol-watch|replies":{"of":"unmeasured","n":140},"sol-watch|snipers":{"of":"unmeasured","n":140},"sol-watch|socials":{"of":"noise","n":124},"sol-watch|devGrads":{"of":"noise","n":123},"sol-watch|tradesPerFill":{"of":"noise","n":140},"bondmarket|level":{"of":"real","n":5},"bondmarket|shrink":{"of":"unmeasured","n":163},"bondmarket|samples":{"of":"real","n":1},"bondmarket|overtone":{"of":"noise","n":148},"bondmarket|progress":{"of":"noise","n":127},"index-legs|size":{"of":"noise","n":4},"index-legs|depth":{"of":"noise","n":4},"index-legs|appliedScale":{"of":"noise","n":4},"oraclemarket|width":{"of":"real","n":2},"oraclemarket|horizon":{"of":"unmeasured","n":9},"oraclemarket|session":{"of":"noise","n":3},"predict-read|edge":{"of":"noise","n":40},"predict-read|crowdN":{"of":"noise","n":18},"predict-read|volGap":{"of":"noise","n":54},"predict-read|analyst":{"of":"noise","n":84},"predict-read|crossGap":{"of":"unmeasured","n":163},"predict-read|modelGap":{"of":"real","n":72},"predict-read|crowdLean":{"of":"noise","n":18},"predict-read|hoursLeft":{"of":"noise","n":19},"predict-read|volFromTape":{"of":"noise","n":46},"trader-watch|netFlow":{"of":"real","n":163},"trader-watch|headroom":{"of":"real","n":163},"trader-watch|buyerLead":{"of":"real","n":163},"trader-watch|earlyRaise":{"of":"real","n":163},"trader-watch|launcherHold":{"of":"noise","n":85},"trader-watch|sellPressure":{"of":"noise","n":1},"world-bounty|bounty":{"of":"unmeasured","n":104},"world-bounty|weekday":{"of":"unmeasured","n":104}},"lines":["retired from the proof queue's blend: which attempt it was, the length of the claim, whether it carried Lean","retired from the tail desk's blend: how wide the day's figure sat against a typical day, how calm the tape was","retired from the relationship desk's blend: beta, half life, rho, z","retired from the perp read's blend: bands, basis, the chart read's vote, flow, macd, mean reversion, the chart's stance, structure, trend, volatility, vwap","retired from the earnings desk's blend: the analyst's lean","retired from the flywheel's blend: aggression, buy score, momentum bps, rsi, streak, volatility bps, volume factor pct","retired from the tone read's blend: accounts, holders, progress, socials, top ten, top wallet","retired from the timeline's blend: the hour it went out, whether it was the mind's turn or a product post, its length","retired from the allocator's blend: drawdown bps, macd hist bps, pct b, streak, volatility bps, z","retired from the chart desk's blend: band, divergence, strength, structure, trend","retired from the fund token board's blend: the price against the NAV on the NAV's own day, how large the covered move was, whichever way it pointed","retired from the income index's fills's blend: how far the record cut the size, the depth of the pool, how large the covered move was, whichever way it pointed","retired from the Solana desk's paper trades's blend: bundle, buyers, churn, dev grads, dev sold, flow, funder, socials, speed, top10, trades per fill","retired from the Solana desk's filter's blend: bundle, churn, dev grads, dev sold, flow, funder, socials, speed, top10, trades per fill","retired from the bond market's blend: overtone, progress, samples","retired from the index desk's fills's blend: how far the record cut the size, the depth of the pool, how large the covered move was, whichever way it pointed","retired from the oracle market's blend: the horizon, whether the market was in session","retired from the prediction desk's blend: the analyst's lean, the crowd's lean on X, how many posts the crowd read had, the gap between the desk's number and the price, the hours left to close, vol from tape, vol gap","retired from the launch filter's blend: the launcher's share of supply","slip bps on the hinc desk separates for real (right 0% of the time when it reads above 184 against 75% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","slip bps on the index desk separates for real (right 0% of the time when it reads above 142 against 100% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","how long the alert waits on the pager separates for real (right 8% of the time when it reads above 18 against 35% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","model on the earnings desk separates for real (right 89% of the time when it reads above 2560 against 74% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","whether a plate rode with it on the timeline separates for real (right 66% of the time when it reads above -100 against 41% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","rsi on the allocator separates for real (right 60% of the time when it reads above 49 against 40% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","how much of the fund the covered move covers on the fund token board separates for real (right 94% of the time when it reads above 32.09 against 71% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","buyers on the Solana desk's filter separates for real (right 13% of the time when it reads above -23 against 7% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","level on the bond market separates for real (right 97% of the time when it reads above 0.0147 against 87% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","samples on the bond market separates for real (right 96% of the time when it reads above 908 against 88% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","the ladder's width on the oracle market separates for real (right 63% of the time when it reads above 37 against 48% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","the net ETH flow on the launch filter separates for real (right 3% of the time when it reads above 45 against 1% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","how far along the curve the push is on the launch filter separates for real (right 0% of the time when it reads above 41 against 3% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","the size of the fleet on the launch filter separates for real (right 3% of the time when it reads above -16 against 0% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate","the ETH bought in the first thirty seconds on the launch filter separates for real (right 3% of the time when it reads above -6 against 1% when it reads at or below) and no dial is declared on it: a dial candidate"],"confirm":2,"noiseMin":60}},"how":"each desk states what it expects and the features behind it before the outcome exists, then the outcome is read from the world, and a feature earns weight only by telling the winners from the losers by more than luck would"}