{"ok":true,"rows":[{"slug":"launches","name":"The launch filter","claims":"For every launch it sees, whether that launch was worth taking, written before the curve resolved.","grader":"goalposts","graderMeans":"the world moved the price, the house set the bar","gradedBy":"the curve either bonded or it did not, against a bar the house set","headline":"bands","why":"A filter over a thousand launches is supposed to say no to almost all of them. The figure that means something is how the rate rises across the bands it sorted them into.","learns":"the filter's weights and vetoes are counted from this record and read at every fleet entry","consumer":true,"settled":58678,"right":4158,"claimed":58750,"unanswered":72,"hitRate":0.071,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":4000,"open":88,"cap":4000,"atCap":true},"firstAt":"2026-09-09T18:16:07.928Z","lastAt":"2026-10-12T05:47:59.206Z"},{"slug":"predictions","name":"The prediction desk","claims":"Before a market closes, it writes down its own probability that the answer is yes, and which way that number leans against the price being quoted.","grader":"world","graderMeans":"an outside party, with no say from the house","gradedBy":"the venue publishes the result and the row is settled against it","headline":"calibration","why":"Leaning on mispriced longshots means being wrong most of the time on purpose, so the rate is not the measure. The measure is whether the number sat closer to what happened than the price did.","learns":"the read's blend weights are dials this record moves, how wrong a price must be before the desk acts is set by whether its number has beaten the market's price (by its hit rate only until that can be judged), the stake on any kind of market shrinks where that has not been shown, the desk's own trade record can refuse an order, and a family the record refuses stays refused","consumer":true,"settled":5691,"right":2332,"claimed":7986,"unanswered":2295,"hitRate":0.41,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":1500,"open":755,"cap":1500,"atCap":true},"firstAt":"2026-09-11T00:02:35.176Z","lastAt":"2026-10-12T03:51:53.665Z"},{"slug":"ladder","name":"The oracle market's ladder","claims":"That the close will land between the ladder's outer strikes, stated at the lock, before the close existed.","grader":"goalposts","graderMeans":"the world moved the price, the house set the bar","gradedBy":"the feed's own close print, the same one the settlement paid on, against strikes the house drew","headline":"rate","why":"The inside share measures the ladder's width, not its accuracy: a ladder should hold most closes and not all of them, so the figure is read against a band of six to nine in ten, never as a score to push up.","learns":"the width of each horizon's strike ladder is moved by this record, one step at a time and never past two either way","consumer":true,"settled":4493,"right":2952,"claimed":5923,"unanswered":1430,"hitRate":0.657,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":430,"open":770,"cap":400,"atCap":true},"firstAt":"2026-10-03T19:04:09.592Z","lastAt":"2026-10-12T06:06:20.107Z"},{"slug":"buybacks","name":"The flywheel","claims":"A buy sized before the fill, and whether the price a day later was higher than what it paid.","grader":"world","graderMeans":"an outside party, with no say from the house","gradedBy":"the chain, a day after the fill","headline":"rate","why":"The desk moves the price it is then graded on, so the figure is published with that named rather than left for someone to notice.","learns":"the hit rate shades the size of the next buy","consumer":true,"settled":2594,"right":1193,"claimed":2683,"unanswered":89,"hitRate":0.46,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":400,"open":90,"cap":400,"atCap":true},"firstAt":"2026-09-13T07:40:19.037Z","lastAt":"2026-10-12T05:54:24.103Z"},{"slug":"weights","name":"The allocator","claims":"A weight set before the outcome, and whether the thing it leaned toward moved its way.","grader":"world","graderMeans":"an outside party, with no say from the house","gradedBy":"the tape, afterwards","headline":"rate","why":"A lean away from something is right when that thing falls, so the sign has to be read with the direction, not against it.","learns":null,"consumer":false,"settled":1859,"right":1003,"claimed":1881,"unanswered":22,"hitRate":0.54,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":400,"open":23,"cap":400,"atCap":true},"firstAt":"2026-09-13T08:40:32.560Z","lastAt":"2026-10-12T05:11:20.705Z"},{"slug":"bonds","name":"The bond market","claims":"A price for a question nobody had priced yet, quoted before the answer existed.","grader":"goalposts","graderMeans":"the world moved the price, the house set the bar","gradedBy":"the world answered the question, on terms the house wrote","headline":"quote","why":"A house that quotes twenty percent should be right about one time in five. Read as calibration, never as accuracy.","learns":"two dials in the fair price are moved by this record, and the spread widens when the house's own settled result proves the takers are beating it, never past double","consumer":true,"settled":1172,"right":964,"claimed":1207,"unanswered":35,"hitRate":0.823,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":403,"open":35,"cap":400,"atCap":true},"firstAt":"2026-09-15T04:42:10.324Z","lastAt":"2026-10-12T04:51:37.452Z"},{"slug":"tone","name":"The tone read","claims":"A call on the tone of a launch, filed before it resolved.","grader":"goalposts","graderMeans":"the world moved the price, the house set the bar","gradedBy":"the launch resolved, against a bar the house set","headline":"none","why":"The count of what it has claimed is real and is published. The rate is not, and the page says so rather than printing a number that flatters.","learns":"the read's weights and signs are learned from this record","consumer":true,"settled":1044,"right":620,"claimed":3870,"unanswered":2826,"hitRate":null,"rateWithheld":"Claims that take a long time to answer are evicted before they can settle, so the rows that survive here are the ones that resolved quickly. That is a selection, not a sample, and no rate computed from it would mean anything.","atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":402,"open":763,"cap":400,"atCap":true},"firstAt":"2026-09-14T19:48:28.519Z","lastAt":"2026-10-12T04:51:14.402Z"},{"slug":"perps","name":"The perp read","claims":"A direction on a perpetual market, written with the price at the moment of the call.","grader":"world","graderMeans":"an outside party, with no say from the house","gradedBy":"the venue's own mark, later","headline":"direction","why":"Direction and distance are different questions, so the move in the direction called is published beside the count.","learns":"the read's signal weights are learned from its own ledger of calls, and three dials in the read, how much the registry's rank, the chart read's vote and the chart's stance count, are moved by this record","consumer":true,"settled":229,"right":94,"claimed":234,"unanswered":5,"hitRate":0.41,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":true,"window":{"kept":229,"open":5,"cap":400,"atCap":false},"firstAt":"2026-09-09T10:05:35.569Z","lastAt":"2026-10-12T05:51:14.793Z"},{"slug":"timeline","name":"The timeline","claims":"Every post, the moment it goes out, is filed as a claim that it lands with its readers, with whether it was the mind's turn or a product post, whether a plate rode with it, the hour and the length written down beside it.","grader":"world","graderMeans":"an outside party, with no say from the house","gradedBy":"the readers: a day on, X's own count of likes, replies, reposts and views, against the median of the twenty posts graded before it","headline":"rate","why":"About half of all posts land at or above a running median by construction, so the rate is not the measure; the measure is which subjects sit above the timeline's own share and which below.","learns":"how soon a subject comes round again is multiplied by its share of posts that landed against the timeline's own, between a half and one and a half, once thirty posts are graded and the subject has five","consumer":true,"settled":84,"right":44,"claimed":91,"unanswered":7,"hitRate":0.524,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":84,"open":7,"cap":400,"atCap":false},"firstAt":"2026-10-04T19:04:11.258Z","lastAt":"2026-10-12T01:50:22.760Z"},{"slug":"tail","name":"The tail desk","claims":"Once a day for each market it watches, the loss it does not expect the next day to pass at 95%, written before the day began.","grader":"world","graderMeans":"an outside party, with no say from the house","gradedBy":"the next day's move on the venue's own bars, read after the day's last bar closed","headline":"hold","why":"A figure stated at 95% should be breached about one day in twenty, so a high share of days held is not the measure and a perfect one is a warning. The measure is the breach count against the count the figure promised, both ways.","learns":"the count of days that broke their figure sets a scale the carry desk multiplies its size by, and only ever to shrink it: half when the figure under-states the risk, and only when two looks agree","consumer":true,"settled":48,"right":43,"claimed":54,"unanswered":6,"hitRate":0.896,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":48,"open":6,"cap":400,"atCap":false},"firstAt":"2026-10-04T19:07:07.787Z","lastAt":"2026-10-12T05:51:13.852Z"},{"slug":"charts","name":"The chart desk","claims":"A level that holds, and the level that would prove it wrong, both named before the next bar opened.","grader":"goalposts","graderMeans":"the world moved the price, the house set the bar","gradedBy":"a bar that closed after the claim was written, never one it was drawn from","headline":"hold","why":"A claim confirmed by a close is a different event from one that merely survived its horizon, so the two are counted apart.","learns":"six dials in the read are moved by this record","consumer":true,"settled":46,"right":29,"claimed":53,"unanswered":7,"hitRate":0.63,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":46,"open":7,"cap":400,"atCap":false},"firstAt":"2026-09-20T00:07:17.596Z","lastAt":"2026-10-11T21:21:33.065Z"},{"slug":"proofs","name":"The proof queue","claims":"Before each statement goes to the prover, that this attempt will come back as a complete, compiling Lean proof with no sorry and no new axiom.","grader":"world","graderMeans":"an outside party, with no say from the house","gradedBy":"the prover's own verdict: a complete proof that type checks, or anything else","headline":"rate","why":"The queue chooses what it sends, so the rate is read per kind of statement and never as a promise about the next one; a kind stays at even odds until ten of its attempts have settled.","learns":"the rate each kind of statement comes back proved at orders the queue inside each priority tier, and a retry carries what the last attempt found","consumer":true,"settled":45,"right":39,"claimed":45,"unanswered":null,"hitRate":0.867,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":45,"open":0,"cap":400,"atCap":false},"firstAt":"2026-10-03T22:31:40.923Z","lastAt":"2026-10-11T10:26:14.921Z"},{"slug":"trades","name":"The trading desk","claims":"A position taken with the house's own money, and the price it expected to be right about.","grader":"world","graderMeans":"an outside party, with no say from the house","gradedBy":"the wallet, at the price the chain actually filled","headline":"pnl","why":"A rate without the size of the wins is an unfair number in both directions, so the profit and loss leads and the rate rides beside it.","learns":"the desk's own outcomes set its stand-downs, its size, its crews and its entry floor; the readings filed on its own fills can refuse an entry once proven and confirmed, and how many accounts were talking about a coin will set how far the timeline moves its rank once the record vouches for it","consumer":true,"settled":33,"right":12,"claimed":33,"unanswered":null,"hitRate":0.364,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":true,"window":{"kept":33,"open":0,"cap":400,"atCap":false},"firstAt":"2026-09-09T12:27:18.290Z","lastAt":"2026-09-14T13:34:46.609Z"},{"slug":"index","name":"The index desk","claims":"A rebalance leg, and the drift it was meant to close.","grader":"house","graderMeans":"the house grades its own claim","gradedBy":"the house, against a bar the house chose","headline":"measures","why":"This is the house marking its own homework, so no rate is published. Two real measurements go up instead: what the drift was before and after, and what each fill paid against the oracle.","learns":null,"consumer":false,"settled":24,"right":11,"claimed":24,"unanswered":null,"hitRate":null,"rateWithheld":"the house grades this claim itself, so its rate is not evidence","atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":24,"open":0,"cap":400,"atCap":false},"firstAt":"2026-09-14T14:14:32.692Z","lastAt":"2026-10-08T21:07:20.419Z"},{"slug":"pairs","name":"The relationship desk","claims":"That two markets which have moved together are further apart than usual, and that the gap closes before it widens another standard deviation.","grader":"goalposts","graderMeans":"the world moved the price, the house set the bar","gradedBy":"later bars, against the distance the claim itself named before they existed","headline":"hold","why":"The claim carries the beta, the average and the spread's own width frozen at the moment of writing, so it is settled against its own yardstick rather than one recomputed later in its favour.","learns":"a pair whose graded reads have been shown to fail more often than they hold is benched from the board until ten later reads lift it","consumer":true,"settled":20,"right":15,"claimed":22,"unanswered":2,"hitRate":0.75,"rateWithheld":null,"atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":20,"open":2,"cap":400,"atCap":false},"firstAt":"2026-09-22T20:35:17.864Z","lastAt":"2026-10-11T01:38:51.368Z"},{"slug":"pager","name":"The pager","claims":"When a condition first stands up, that it will still be standing when its wait runs out and is worth a page, written before the wait runs.","grader":"world","graderMeans":"an outside party, with no say from the house","gradedBy":"the condition's own course: it still stood when its wait ran out, or it cleared first","headline":"rate","why":"A pager that cries wolf gets muted, so the figure is how often a condition it began watching turned out to be real, read beside how many runs it comes from.","learns":"each alert's wait before it pages is stretched by the share of its own runs that cleared before their wait ran out, and never shortened","consumer":true,"settled":17,"right":1,"claimed":17,"unanswered":null,"hitRate":null,"rateWithheld":"17 settled so far; 20 before a rate is a measurement","atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":17,"open":0,"cap":400,"atCap":false},"firstAt":"2026-10-04T16:37:08.961Z","lastAt":"2026-10-09T23:40:35.665Z"},{"slug":"bounty","name":"The world's daily bounty","claims":"In each UTC day's first hour, that the day's bounty will hold the world's checked work at or above the median of the last fourteen days.","grader":"goalposts","graderMeans":"the world moved the price, the house set the bar","gradedBy":"the desks' own count of work checked that day, against the median of the last fourteen days, a bar the house set","headline":"rate","why":"One claim a day makes a slow record, so nothing moves until thirty days are graded, and what it moves can only lower what the house pays, never raise it.","learns":"the share of graded days on which the bounty held the checked work at its usual level sets what the house pays of its figure: the whole, three quarters or half, never more","consumer":true,"settled":8,"right":8,"claimed":9,"unanswered":1,"hitRate":null,"rateWithheld":"8 settled so far; 20 before a rate is a measurement","atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":8,"open":1,"cap":400,"atCap":false},"firstAt":"2026-10-05T00:07:08.887Z","lastAt":"2026-10-12T00:01:15.046Z"},{"slug":"risk","name":"The risk engine","claims":"Each time the score sizes a deposit's leg, that the market will not fall further than the band the engine gave it over the next week, with every factor's reading written down first.","grader":"world","graderMeans":"an outside party, with no say from the house","gradedBy":"the market's own price a week on, and the lowest price seen between, against the band the claim named","headline":"rate","why":"The score sizes real depositor books, and a weight nobody checks against what each market did is a guess that never improves.","learns":"seven dials, one per factor in the score, are moved by this record, normalised so the score stays a weighted mean","consumer":true,"settled":4,"right":4,"claimed":7,"unanswered":3,"hitRate":null,"rateWithheld":"4 settled so far; 20 before a rate is a measurement","atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":4,"open":3,"cap":400,"atCap":false},"firstAt":"2026-10-10T21:01:50.541Z","lastAt":"2026-10-11T00:42:33.570Z"},{"slug":"index-fills","name":"The index desk's fills","claims":"Before a rebalance swap is sent, the slip each leg it touches should pay, with the cut the record applied to the size filed beside it.","grader":"goalposts","graderMeans":"the world moved the price, the house set the bar","gradedBy":"the pool's own fill, read off the chain, against the slip the house stated for that leg before the swap was sent","headline":"measures","why":"The bar is each leg's own recent middle fill, so about half land inside it by construction once a leg's window speaks; a rate would describe the bar, not the desk. What it measures is whether a swap the record cut fills inside more often than one it left alone.","learns":null,"consumer":false,"settled":4,"right":4,"claimed":4,"unanswered":null,"hitRate":null,"rateWithheld":"4 settled so far; 20 before a rate is a measurement","atLeast":false,"window":{"kept":4,"open":0,"cap":400,"atCap":false},"firstAt":"2026-10-08T17:27:46.678Z","lastAt":"2026-10-08T20:20:38.365Z"}],"totals":{"desks":19,"settled":76093,"claimed":82893,"byWorld":10604,"houseGraded":1,"ratesWithheld":6,"learning":16,"filesOnly":3}}